公司受益于制冷剂价格提升。根据百川盈孚，截至2024 年10 月17 日，R22市场均价为30500 元/吨，相比1 月29 日增长56.41%，同比+54.43%；R32的市场均价为38000 元/吨，相比9 月29 日上涨1.33%，同比+126.87%；R125 市场均价35000 元/吨，周环比+2.94%，月环比+18.64%，年同比+34.62%；R134a 市场均价34000 元/吨，月环比+3.03%。年同比+24.77%。Key points of investment:
The company is a leading company in the fluorosilicon industry. The company is mainly engaged in the fluorosilicon chemical business and operates its business through five divisions. The Polymer Materials Division is engaged in the production and sale of polymer material products, including polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE), polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF), etc.; the refrigerant division produces and sells refrigerant products, including R22, R32, R125, R134a, etc., of which R22 has the highest production capacity in the world; the Silicone Division produces and sells raw rubber and rubber compounds, deep-processed silicone rubber products, etc.; methylene chloride (PVC) and calcined alkali division produces and sells methylene chloride PVC and Caustic Soda Products; Other Business Segments Engaged in the production and sale of by-products from other divisions.
Net profit after deducting 2024H1 was 0.233 billion yuan, down 6.70% year over year. With 2021-2024H1, the company achieved operating income of 15.847 billion yuan, 20.036 billion yuan, 14.554 billion yuan, and 7.285 billion yuan, respectively, +57.48%, +26.43%, -27.36%, and +1.07%, respectively; net profit after deduction was 1.978 billion yuan, 2.625 billion yuan, 0.594 billion yuan, and 0.233 billion yuan, respectively. YoY +200.49%, +32.70%, -77.38%, and -6.70%, respectively. The decline in the company's performance in 2023 was mainly due to the low prosperity of the fluorosilicon industry, increased product supply, and downstream demand fell short of expectations, and product prices declined markedly. 2024H1, the company's revenue growth was mainly due to a significant increase in the price of refrigerant products. At the same time, the company's gross sales margin increased by 4.1 pct to 19.83% year on year; net sales margin increased 2.54 pct to 5.43% year on year.
The company has benefited from increased refrigerant prices. According to Baichuan Yingfu, as of October 17, 2024, the average price of the R22 market was 30,500 yuan/ton, up 56.41% from January 29, and +54.43%; the average market price of R32 was 38,000 yuan/ton, up 1.33% from September 29, +126.87% year on year; R125 average market price was 35,000 yuan/ton, +2.94% from month to month, +34.62% year over year; R134a average market price was 34,000 yuan/ton Compared to +3.03%. YoY +24.77%.
Scientific and technological innovation has achieved remarkable results. In 2023, the company added 101 new brand products, and a large number of new high-end material products entered the market sample or small-batch supply stage, laying a good foundation for the company to enhance the height and competitiveness of the industry; 81 new authorized patents were added, currently 620 patents were authorized; 22 standards were issued, including 2 national standards, 2 industry standards, 1 local standard, and 17 group standards. Currently, the various standards issued by the company have reached 127. The company's R&D expenditure in 2023 was approximately RMB 0.935 billion, accounting for 6.45% of revenue.
Profit forecast. We expect the company's 2024-2026 net profit to be 0.907, 1.476, and 2.012 billion yuan, respectively, and corresponding EPS of 0.52 yuan, 0.85 yuan, and 1.16 yuan, respectively. Based on the valuation of comparable companies in the same industry, we gave a PE valuation of 16-18 times in 2024, with a corresponding reasonable value range of $8.32-9.36. Based on the exchange rate of HK$1 = RMB 0.92, the corresponding reasonable value range was HK$9.04-10.17. For the first time, coverage gave a “superior to the market” rating.
Risk warning. Product prices fell, downstream demand fell short of expectations, and raw material prices fluctuated.
