医美核心进展：艾塑菲淡季动销高景气延续，维持全年目标Q3 医美业务（核心为艾塑菲）销售近1.2 亿元，通过韩国审查及旺季加持下预计Q4 环比加速放量，维持全年目标预计3.5-4 亿元。Jiangsu Wu Zhong disclosed the results for the 3rd quarter of '24:
24Q1-3: Revenue 1.647 billion yuan/ +9.58%, net profit to mother 0.045 billion yuan/ +311%.
24Q3: Revenue of 0.441 billion yuan/ +9.46%, net profit of 0.021 billion yuan/loss to profit
Core progress in medicine and aesthetics: Aisufei's off-season sales boom continued, maintaining the annual target Q3 medical and aesthetic business sales of nearly 0.12 billion yuan. Under the Korean review and peak season support, Q4 is expected to accelerate month-on-month volume, maintaining the annual target of 0.35-0.4 billion yuan.
Team development is progressing steadily. By 24Q3, it is expected that the annual institutional coverage target has been reached ahead of schedule. It is expected that Q4 will gradually expand some light medical and aesthetic institutions. The annual institutional coverage target is expected to reach 400-500, making institutional reserves for next year's growth.
Production capacity is in place and supply is safe. The production capacity of the new plant is expected to increase by 1 million/year, adding 0.2 million/year to the old factory. The overall capacity supply is expected to exceed one million units of domestic production capacity, and supply-side restrictions have been lifted.
Looking forward to doubling next year: after the company's production capacity is expanded, volume is expected to accelerate in 2025. Referring to the Q4 target and growth trends of other regenerated products, we expect Apafei's sales to be about 0.7-0.8 billion yuan in 25 years. In addition, 100mg products may focus on the declining market to expand the efficacy and price band matrix, and profit margins are expected to continue to rise during the full year of sales.
Other medical and aesthetic matrices are expected to gradually be implemented
① At the end of '25, the agency's HARA hyaluronic acid (Ellie's upgraded product) is expected to go on sale, and table hemp is also expected to be approved; ② The PDRN “baby needles” that are expected to be approved in '26 are expected to be approved in the first batch. PRDN's largest domestic product currently has sales of over 100 million yuan. Refer to overseas (Pharma Research, Korea's largest PDRN company, had sales of 0.5 billion yuan in South Korea in '24. The size of hyaluronic acid in China is about 10 times that of Korea) is expected to reach several billion dollars.
③ Two three-class recombinant collagen products are expected to be launched by the end of '26. Among them, freeze-dried fiber is expected to target products that have already been marketed, and Dongwan Cooperative's implants are expected to focus on eye filling with standard Shuangmei products.
The pharmaceutical business declined, and the profit level improved significantly due to medical and aesthetic improvements in the pharmaceutical sector's revenue: 2024Q3 pharmaceutical business revenue 0.283 billion/ -27%, of which the pharmaceutical industry revenue was 0.146 billion yuan/ +10%, and pharmaceutical commercial revenue was 0.138 billion yuan/ -46%.
Changes in profit indicators: 24Q3 gross profit margin 49.29% /+19.8pct, sales, management and R&D expense ratios were 31.42% /+11.4pct, 6.52% /+0.4pct, 2.45% /-0.2pct, and net profit margin 4.68% /+8.8pct, mainly due to changes in product structure.
Investment advice: After the launch, Asafei was booming, and sales performance exceeded market expectations. In the short term, it can be expected that Aesofei will continue to drive high revenue and profit growth in the medical and aesthetic business; HARA hyaluronic acid and table hemp are expected to be approved by the end of 25. In addition, matrices such as collagen, baby acupuncture, liposolysis, and botulism are expected to gradually land in the long term. The net profit for 24-26 is expected to be 0.114/0.262/0.389 billion yuan, corresponding to the 25/26 PE of 30/20x, maintaining the “Highly Recommended” rating
Risk warning: Product approval progress falls short of expectations; risk of product sales falling short of expectations; risk of industry policy; risk of trustworthiness and delay in referring to third-party data.
