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疯狂的黄金背后,一个悖论有待破解!

Behind the frenzy of gold, there is a paradox waiting to be solved!

Golden10 Data ·  Oct 22 17:10

There is a certain paradox in the financial markets, and it remains to be seen which side will be overturned, waiting for time's verification.

The modern gold rush has accelerated, with the price of gold breaking records almost every week. Last week, spot gold surged to over $2700 per ounce for the first time, expanding its gains for the year to 31%.

"I have to say, this is a bit crazy," said Henry Jennings, senior market analyst at Marcus Today, "In the long run, it is undoubtedly one of the best-performing assets this year."

There are many factors behind the recent gold rush, such as geopolitical events in the Middle East.

According to data from the World Gold Council, central banks around the world are still hoarding gold, but after the record-breaking demand at the beginning of the year, the pace of purchases has slowed down.

Global investors also seem to be trying to stock up on commodities before the US election next month. Jennings pointed out, "Some are worried... neither candidate has really addressed America's growing deficit problem: the size of the US government debt has surpassed 33 trillion dollars, and it is still increasing."

"Currently, gold is seen asIts price has soared to a historic high, closely related to market expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.One. And the popularity is really extraordinary." He referred to the "popularity" as many investors enthusiastically buying gold in the market.

But could this be because people feel that the global financial markets, including the stock market, have gone too far?

Australia's Deputy Reserve Bank of Australia Andrew Hauser expressed that he thinks it might be so.

"Global financial markets, especially the stock market, have very optimistic expectations, especially during the post-pandemic period," he said at Monday's Federal Reserve investor briefing.But after the bursting of the internet bubble and the Fed's rate cut in 2001, the ROI dropped by more than 10%.The deputy chairman also gave his personal assessment on the enthusiasm in the global financial markets. Hauser said: "Of course, my personal view is that some assets have already reached perfect pricing. This may well be true, or it may eventually be proven true, but it has to be said that this is an extreme case."

Jennings believes that the market's optimism is at least linked to Wall Street betting on Trump winning the upcoming US election, as he is seen to be advantageous for the world's largest economy.

"The economy is so strong, we have seen this in the economic data over the past few weeks time and time again," he said.

This has brought a certain paradox to the financial markets: on one hand, the price of gold is soaring, some believe this indicates investors are preparing for the so-calledhard landingor global recession; on the other hand, there is the belief that the largest global economy will continue to perform well.

Jennings said:"Markets will not rise in a straight line forever. When everyone focuses on a particular viewpoint, that view often fails. But which view may be overturned is still up for debate."

As for the risks of the USA election, the final results will be announced in the next two weeks.

At the same time, Chris Beauchamp, Chief Market Analyst at IG London, believes the gold rush "shows no signs of slowing down."

He wrote in a report:"The recent dip in early October has been friendly to the bulls, who see new upward momentum in this strong trend."

However, he did express some cautious sentiments. "Closing below the September high of $2685 may trigger some short-term weakness," he pointed out.

In addition, the price of silver is also very strong, rising more than 30% this year to its highest level since 2012.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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