根据Real Clear Politics当前的数据，The comprehensive data and averages of public opinion surveys compiled by professional institutions are extremely useful for us to understand the dynamics of the US election. How does Trump's increasing odds affect gold, silver, oil, and the US dollar?
The comprehensive data and averages compiled by professional institutions in opinion polls are extremely beneficial for us to understand the dynamics of the USA elections. Platforms like FiveThirtyEight, RealClearPolitics, etc., can effectively correct any partisan tendencies or technical errors that may arise in individual opinion polls. The accuracy of opinion polls was validated in the 2022 midterm elections, mainly due to the improvement in sampling methods and question design by numerous polling institutions. Despite significant differences between midterm elections and presidential elections, these experiences will still help reduce potential errors.
According to the current data from Five Thirty Eight, as of October 21, Harris has a 48.2% chance of winning the 2024 USA presidential election, while Trump's chance of winning is 46.4%.
According to the current data from Real Clear Politics, as of October 21, Harris has a 49.2% chance of winning the 2024 USA presidential election, while Trump's chance of winning is 48.3%.
From the data provided by the two polling institutions, it can be seen that starting from October 6, Harris's support rate has remained stable overall, while Trump's support rate is steadily increasing, and both support rates are converging.
Looking at the commodity market, since October 6, the price of spot gold has been rising strongly, breaking through the important $2700 per ounce level, with an increase of over 3%, setting a new historical high.
Spot silver surged significantly, up nearly 8%, hitting a new high since the end of 2012.
The usd index kept climbing, with an increase of over 1%.
Crude oil futures for WTI plummeted significantly, dropping over 9%.
What do institutions think?
Goldman Sachs
If the Republican Party wins a landslide victory in the November US election, the US dollar may experience the largest increase. This scenario would mean that the Republican candidate, Trump, wins the presidential election and the Republican Party controls both the Senate and the House of Representatives. If the Republicans win the presidential election but there is disagreement in Congress, the appreciation of the US dollar will be somewhat smaller. Goldman Sachs said that if the Democratic candidate, Harris, wins the presidential election, the US dollar may weaken.
BNP Paribas Bank in France
The outcome of next month's US election will determine the near-term outlook for the US dollar. Current opinion polls show that the election results are still very uncertain. If the Republican candidate, Trump, becomes president and the Republicans control Congress, it will be the most positive outcome for the US dollar. BNP Paribas Bank stated that if the Democratic candidate, Harris, is elected president and there is disagreement in Congress, the US dollar will generally weaken.
