Incidents:
On October 17, the company released its 2024 three-quarter report. In the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of 1.435 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.11%, and achieved net profit to mother of 0.228 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.76%.
Opinions:
It shows that business growth is driving a steady increase in revenue, and price fluctuations combined with increased expenses are dragging down current profits. During the reporting period, the company showed that its main business maintained steady growth as downstream demand continued to recover. Among them, the share of demand in the consumer electronics sector increased steadily, driving revenue growth of 25.11%. In terms of profit, the overall price reduction in the industry has eroded the company's gross margin. Combined with the increase in equity payment fees and exchange gains and losses during the reporting period, the marked increase in expenses affected current profits.
The layout of the Hefei plant shows that the driver chip is being sealed and tested, and it is expected that the volume will continue to be released in the future. The Hefei factory is the company's first public offering project, which can increase the company's production capacity in the entire 12-inch wafer bump manufacturing, testing and thin-film coating process. It is the company's layout to match the major trend of the industry shifting to 12 inches. In the first phase of the project, the planned production capacity of BP and CP is about 0.01 million tablets/month, COF is 30 million pcs/month, and COG is expected to be put into operation and gradually released in the future, which will ease the company's current production capacity constraints and increase the company's market share.
Profit forecast and investment rating: The first three quarters showed steady growth in the main business, but price fluctuations may still affect profit levels. This does not indicate that the business growth rate was less than that of the main business. Overall, the company's performance growth rate in the second half of the year was less than that of the first half of the year. Considering that the Hefei plant will greatly increase the company's production capacity and market share, it is expected that the volume will drive performance growth in the future. We expect the company to achieve net profit of 0.31 billion yuan, 0.402 billion yuan, and 0.499 billion yuan respectively in 2024-2026, and EPS of 0.26 yuan, 0.34 yuan, and 0.42 yuan respectively. The current stock price is 12.7 yuan, corresponding PE is 48.8 times, 37.6 times, and 30.3 times, respectively. We selected Changdian Technology, Huatian Technology, and Tongfu Microelectronics, which are similar to the company's business, as comparable companies. Considering that the company showed a steady increase in business prosperity, had a certain degree of performance flexibility, coverage for the first time, and gave it an “gain” rating.
Risk warning: Prices of major products continue to fall; market competition intensifies; fund-raising projects fall short of expectations; downstream demand recovery falls short of expectations; data citation risks.