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天空才是顶?金价再创新高,分析人士:还没涨到头!

Is the sky the limit? Gold price hits a new high, analysts say it hasn't peaked yet!

Zhitong Finance ·  Oct 22 14:59

Asset management institution Sprott expresses that after gold price hitting a record high, gold is now in a new bullish phase. Other analysts also predict that gold price will continue to climb to new highs.

According to the Tencent Finance app, on Monday, spot gold reached $2754.01 per ounce, setting a new historical high, highlighting strong momentum. Asset management institution Sprott asset management expresses that after gold price hitting a record high, gold is now in a new bullish phase. Other analysts also predict that gold price will continue to climb to new highs.

Market strategist Paul Wong from Sprott Asset Management wrote in a report: "Driven by central bank bids, rising U.S. debt, and the possibility of a peak in the dollar, gold has entered a new bullish phase."

The current trading price of spot gold is $2,734.87 per ounce, while the price of gold futures is $2,748.30 per ounce.

Wong further stated: "Historically, the rise in the ratio of U.S. debt to GDP has led to an increase in gold price due to concerns over debt sustainability, currency devaluation, and debt monetization."

The Congressional Budget Office predicts that the ratio of public debt to GDP will rise from 98% in 2023 to 181% in 2053, reaching the highest level in U.S. history.

Wong explained that as debt increases, the government may solve the deficit problem by printing money, leading to currency devaluation. This erosion of trust in fiat currency enhances gold's attractiveness as a reliable store of value.

He added that the persistent inflationary pressures and challenging global macroeconomic conditions suggest that central banks and investors are more likely to allocate assets to precious metals.

According to the World Gold Council (WGC) data, in the first half of 2024, the net gold purchases by central banks worldwide rose to 483 tons, 5% higher than the record set in the first half of 2023.

An increasing number of analysts predict that the gold price will continue to rise to $3,000 per ounce, with some expecting it to surpass $2,800 in the next 3 months.

Michael Widmer, the commodity strategist at Bank of America, stated that there is significant upside potential for the gold price in the future, "it looks better now than ever before." Widmer cited rising government debt levels and impending geopolitical uncertainties as key factors for his bullish outlook on the gold price.

Israel and its adversaries Hamas and Hezbollah have pledged to continue fighting in Gaza and Lebanon, making hopes of resolving the ongoing Middle East conflict dim. Escalating geopolitical tensions typically lead investors to flock to gold as a hedge against risks and instability in the global market.Its price has soared to a historic high, closely related to market expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.To cushion global market risks and instability, investors often turn to gold and other safe-haven assets.

Citigroup analysts also firmly believe that the gold price will reach $3,000 in the next 6 to 9 months. They added that if oil prices spike due to recent escalations in the Middle East, the gold price should also rise accordingly.

Citigroup stated that despite a slight decline in retail demand in China over the past three months, the gold price still performs "very well", reflecting buyers' willingness to pay higher prices.

Meanwhile, Vivek Dhar of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia stated in a report on Monday that due to the "continuously weak US dollar", he expects the average price of gold to reach $3,000 in the fourth quarter of next year.

However, Dhar stated that he expects the average price of gold for this quarter to reach $2,800. Citigroup has recently raised expectations for the price of gold and also predicts that the price of gold will touch $2,800 within 3 months.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
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