摩根士丹利首席美股策略师迈克·威尔逊（Mike Wilson）解释了原因。他说：“虽然一些人认为，由于关税风险和移民放缓，特朗普获胜将对经济增长和股市构成不利因素，但我们认为，Morgan Stanley's chief US stock strategist said that the market is trying to bet in advance on a recurrence of Trump's victory in 2016, when small business confidence in the USA was positively affected to the greatest extent in at least 40 years.
Recently, Trump dominated the media topics by conducting campaign activities in key swing state Pennsylvania, where he received cheers at a Pittsburgh Steelers game and fried some fries at McDonald's. For former President Trump, this was a good headline news.
People believe that the US stock market is in a mindset supporting Trump, with the market's P/E ratio rising. Although consumer stocks, which are more susceptible to tariff risks, have performed poorly. The trend of the stock market (and other assets) seems to indicate that as Trump's position in the prediction market improves, his chances of winning increase.
Mike Wilson, Chief US Stock Strategist at Morgan Stanley, explained the reasons. He said: "While some believe that Trump's victory would be a negative factor for economic growth and the stock market due to tariff risks and immigration slowdown, we believe there is another factor worth considering from the 2016 experience - animal spirits."
In 2016, Trump's victory boosted small business confidence.
He stated that in 2016, within three months of Trump's victory, small business confidence experienced the largest positive impact in at least 40 years, and individual investors' sentiment also improved. "We believe the market may be trying to bet in advance on the possibility of this result reoccurring, as Trump's victory in 2016 took both critics and the market by surprise."
However, if Harris wins, it could lead to disappointment on Wall Street - polls show a 50% chance of this happening. But Wilson also pointed out the market downside risks that a Trump victory could bring. He said: "In certain market areas, if the upside potential has already been over-crowded and priced in, the 'sell the news' phenomenon could make it vulnerable."
Of course, before the election starts, this is not an issue. Wilson stated, "From now until the general election, there are no significant fluctuations in the possibility of the election and/or global liquidity. From the perspective of indices and industry/style/factors, the stock market may lean towards a call."
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