智通财经APP获悉，华尔街金融巨头摩根士丹利(以下简称“大摩”)近日发布小盘股研报并列出该机构首选的美股市场小盘股，这一群体自2022年以来在美联储激进加息以及长期高利率重压下持续萎靡，但是最近持续受益于美联储降息周期开启以及美国经济“软着陆”预期推动下更广泛的股票市场向中小盘轮动。不过摩根士丹利分析团队表示，在彻底看好美股小盘股前景之前，该机构仍然在等待一些宏观层面能够支撑小盘股看涨逻辑的实际证据出现。

It is understood that the benchmark for US small-cap stocks -$Russell 2000 Index (.RUT.US)$has risen by about 10% since the second half of the year, in line with$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$almost flat, with the Russell 2000 index (.RUT.US) having been at the bottom over the past two years. ETFs tracking US small-cap stocks, such as IWM, VB, IJR, and SCHA, which are anchored in small-cap stocks, have seen a significant increase in value since the second half of the year. The assets under management of these ETFs have been continuously increasing as funds shift to the mid-small cap space.

除了美联储新一轮降息周期拉开萎靡以及美国“软着陆”预期带来的估值修复，还有一部分原因是美国总统大选带来了一些上行动力。

特朗普将保持企业低税收和减缓企业监管规模的政策预期，叠加美联储降息预期，共同提振了小型企业的股价，尽管分析师们普遍认为，这些公司前景更加受益于对美国经济增长的更大信心。

大摩在美东时间周一发布的一份报告中表示，在美国总统竞选之后的 12个月内，美股小盘股的绝对收益往往高达 25%，表现远远优于大盘股基准——标普500指数的大约 6%。

继 9月份非农就业报告井喷式增长以及美联储上个月意外大幅降息 50个基点的消息之后，摩根士丹利分析团队最近将该机构对小盘股的评级从“卖出”上调至“中性”，在此前“卖出”这一负面评级已维持3年之久。大摩在研报中表示：“如果我们需要对小盘股整体持乐观的看涨态度，领先的宏观指标可能需要表明美国经济增长将明显加速。”这一最新观点与摩根士丹利此前于10月16日发布的美股研究报告相呼应。

The Daiwa analyst team stated that a further upgrade view on small-cap stocks would require an upward revision of GDP for 2025 and 2026, as well as further improvement in leading survey indicators such as ISM service and manufacturing PMIs, continued improvement in the health of American consumers, and a significant upward revision in the overall EPS of small-cap stock components.

As the Fed's rate cut cycle begins, the market's shift in investment style from "large to small" may become more apparent.

Generally, after the Fed announces the start of a rate cut cycle, small-cap stocks tend to outperform large-cap stocks significantly in the short to medium term, due to small companies having smaller balance sheets and limited operating scales, making them much more sensitive to floating interest rates compared to large companies.

Assuming the Fed officially starts the rate cut cycle and a 'soft landing' for the American economy becomes a reality, then it is very likely that the upward trend of U.S. stocks will rotate to the seven tech giants in addition to the large-cap index stocks of the S&P 500 that have remained heavily hit since 2022. These stock symbols are extremely sensitive to interest rate and economic growth expectations from an investment theory perspective, even a slight rate cut could potentially raise their stock prices and valuations that have been heavily impacted.

The seven major technology giants in the US stock market that dominate the high weight of the S&P 500 index, known as the "Mag 7," are:$Apple (AAPL.US)$,$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$,$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$,$Tesla (TSLA.US)$,$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$,$Amazon (AMZN.US)$and $Meta Platforms (META.US)$, the core driving force behind the repeated highs of the S&P 500 index.

Looking at the entire U.S. stock market, the core logic behind the seven tech giants outperforming value stocks, large-cap stocks, and a wide range of mid-small cap stocks since 2023 is: the global AI boom, coupled with the fluctuating expectations of Fed rate cuts and occasional significant shifts in rate cut expectations, the U.S. economic growth trend is not strong, although occasionally below expectations, it is not excessively weak to fall into an economic recession. In this trading scenario, the seven tech giants become a 'safe haven' for global funds in the face of uncertain Fed rate cut expectations and slowing economic growth, leveraging their unparalleled AI revenue scale, rock-solid fundamentals, strong free cash reserves, and expanding share buyback programs.

However, Wall Street strategists now generally indicate that in the macro background of the Fed starting a rate cut, the performance of mid-small cap stocks may far exceed the seven tech giants and broad large-cap stocks, with the main logic being that mid-small cap stocks, especially small-cap stocks, are often very sensitive to the benchmark interest rate set by the Fed. They rely heavily on floating-rate loans, so under the big Fed rate cut background, it means that the long-standing debt pressure on them will be significantly reduced, potentially increasing profit margins and stock valuations.

Therefore, against the backdrop of the FOMC dot plot indicating that the Fed may cumulatively cut rates by up to 200 basis points by the end of next year, the classical mid-small cap stock rotation rally or the trend of profit recovery in mid-small cap stocks may become fully apparent, thereby driving funds towards some mid-small cap stocks that benefit from the rate cut cycle and have very cheap stock prices and valuations, instead of those tech giants at historical high valuations. Investors will become 'comparison shoppers' in the general sense, also known as conducting a 'comparison shopping'.

The following list of individual stocks is Morgan Stanley's analyst team's "Preferred Small Cap Stocks List" categorized by industry. Among them, there are many well-known companies.$American Airlines (AAL.US)$and $United States Steel (X.US)$In recent years, both of these industry-leading companies were part of the large-cap stocks category, but their stock prices have been continuously low, and currently, their market caps are both below $10 billion.

Semiconductor equipment company$MKS Instruments (MKSI.US)$ Also a popular individual stock in the US stock market, it is a company that focuses on providing process control equipment, instruments, and solutions for high-end manufacturing fields such as chip manufacturing, mainly serving areas such as chip manufacturing, industrial technology, optics, and communication. The company's stock price has been soaring since 2023, with an increase of over 100% from October 2023 to July of this year. However, the stock price has significantly declined since the yen carry trade liquidation turmoil and the pessimistic sentiment surrounding the AI ​​monetization prospects. Surprisingly, this stock is not part of the S&P 500 index components, but belongs to small cap stocks.

Editor/ping