Caixin report on October 22, in recent weeks, against the backdrop of little change in poll numbers, the probability of Trump winning has been soaring in the gambling market, which has also greatly fueled the widespread emergence of "Trump trades" in the financial market. However, upon closer observation of the fund flows on some platforms, everything seems not as simple...

Cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket is currently one of the largest election prediction markets in terms of trading volume. Due to regulatory reasons, the platform is only open to traders outside the USA.

According to industry trackers monitoring Polymarket's fund activities, the substantial bets from just a small group of anonymous traders have dramatically raised the expected probability of Trump winning this year's US presidential election on this well-known prediction market.

Among them, the "high-risk bets" from four anonymous accounts are particularly noteworthy. As one of these accounts increased the betting size on Monday, the total potential payout amount for these four accounts, in case Trump wins, has increased from $30 million last Friday to nearly $43 million on Monday morning (equivalent to approximately 0.3 billion RMB).

An informed source who preferred not to be named stated last Friday that the four accounts on the cryptocurrency prediction exchange are all nominally owned by non-Americans.

As Trump's win rate on the Polymarket platform rises, these massive bets naturally draw attention, as they starkly contrast with the results of opinion polls.

Polls show similar support rates between American Vice President Harris and former President Trump. But on the Polymarket platform, as of Monday, Trump's chances of winning surged to 63%, while Harris only had 37%. The odds on other mainstream election prediction platforms such as Kalshi and PredictIt are also constantly catching up with Polymarket.

This has raised doubts among social media users and prediction market experts: whether large bets have influenced the market, or if the above prediction market is actually a better leading indicator than polling numbers?

Currently, the outside world cannot confirm whether these four accounts (named Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie) represent the same trader or multiple traders, as there is very little publicly available information about these four accounts. However, some prediction market experts believe that there are credible indications of interconnectedness among these accounts, suggesting they may be related to one person or group. Their public comments also exhibit similar confident tones and a comparable style of confusing wording.

The 'gameplay' on prediction websites like Polymarket is actually very simple. The cost of each contract is priced based on the probability of the outcome. For example, if the trading price for a contract on Trump winning the election during a certain period is 60 cents, it implies the market believes there is a 60% chance of Trump winning. If Trump wins in the end, the buyer earns 1 dollar per contract. However, if Trump loses, the buyer loses their entire investment.

Reportedly, up to now, bettors on Polymarket have collectively wagered a total of 1.1 billion dollars on this year's U.S. presidential election.

Some industry insiders are currently concerned whether traders betting on Trump's victory in the gambling market may be intentionally manipulating the election to create the impression of strong Trump momentum.

Since Trump's winning odds showed overwhelming advantage, many conservative commentators have been flooding X with screenshots from Polymarket, claiming it as solid evidence of Trump's imminent overwhelming victory. Trump's supporter Musk is undoubtedly 'enjoying it'. At the same time, there are concerns that these traders may have access to undisclosed substantial insider information.

Editor/Lambor