On October 22, the hot cryptocurrency market has cooled down recently, with bitcoin and ethereum both turning lower in intraday trading. As of press time,$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ dropped by 0.24% to $67,588; $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$ dropped by 0.83% to $2,655.07.

Key Focus

• Forbes: The reason for the rise in bitcoin may be market expectations that Trump will win the presidential election within two weeks.

Recently, Forbes reported that the possible reason for the rise in bitcoin is the market's expectation that Donald Trump will win the presidential election in two weeks, driving the strong performance of this cryptocurrency.

• Billionaire Bill Miller: Advisors will recommend allocating 1%-3% of Bitcoin in investment portfolios in the coming years.

Billionaire investor Bill Miller recently stated in an interview that he expects financial advisors to start recommending allocating 1% to 3% of bitcoin in investment portfolios over the next three to five years. He emphasized bitcoin's unique economic properties, pointing out that regardless of changes in demand or price, bitcoin's supply is fixed, and its availability is not affected by market dynamics.

• As the US general election and Federal Reserve meeting approach, Bitcoin options traders are focusing on call options above 0.08 million US dollars.

According to TheBlock, an analyst stated that bitcoin options traders are increasingly focusing on call options with a strike price exceeding $80,000 expiring in November. The market expects two important events to occur next month: the U.S. presidential election on November 5 and the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision on November 8.The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)(FOMC) interest rate decision.

André Dragosch, the Head of Bitwise Europe Research, said: "Currently, the most open bitcoin options contracts are expiring on November 8, the day of the FOMC meeting and the days following the US election, with a clear bias towards call options. This supports the assumption that bitcoin options traders are generally preparing for a bullish outcome." The market widely expects the Fed to announce a 25 basis points rate cut at the November 8 meeting, with a current probability of a rate cut at 90.2%.

According to Deribit's data, there are a considerable number of outstanding call options contracts expiring on November 29. Deribit has already opened over 3,100 call options expiring at the end of November, with strike prices ranging from $80,000 to $82,000, with a notional value exceeding $2.12 million. In contrast, there are fewer put options contracts (1,200 contracts) with a notional value of $82 million, further reinforcing the market's bullish stance in November. Despite the positive trend in bitcoin prices at the end of November, some traders are still taking hedging positions, with a recent increase in outstanding put options contracts.

• Blackrock's Bitcoin spot ETF asset management scale has ranked in the top 2% of all ETFs.

Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on social media, 'BlackRock's Bitcoin Spot ETF IBIT performed exceptionally well last week, with an additional capital influx of $1.1 billion, marking the best weekly performance since March and surpassing VTI, ranking third in the annual fund inflow list (which is incredible for new products later in the year, especially when the other products in the top five have been around for over 20 years with assets exceeding $300 billion). IBIT's managed assets amount to $26 billion, ranking in the top 2% of all ETFs.'

• Bitcoin hash rate hits a new all-time high, with the market share of listed mining companies reaching a peak.

According to Coindesk, based on Glassnode's data, the seven-day moving average of Bitcoin's hash rate has reached a historical high of 703EH/s (currently 725.20EH/s, reaching a peak of 791.62EH/s), marking the first time the network hash rate has surpassed 700EH/s. Since the halving event in April, Bitcoin's hash rate has increased by nearly 13%.

Bitcoin mining analyst Sebastian Ski's data shows that in September, 12 leading listed mining companies contributed 28.9% of the total hash rate, equivalent to over 200EH/s. Their contribution to the hash rate has been increasing month by month, rising by nearly 10% since October 2022. Ski implies that 'listed mining companies are capturing market share from other miners globally.' Ski also mentioned that the companies with the largest hash rate growth in the past 12 months are: Clean Spark (CLSK), MARA Holdings (MARA), Riot Platforms (RIOT), and IREN. This also aligns with the monthly production growth of leading Bitcoin miners in September. Weaker miners will have to exit the network, while those with the lowest energy costs or strongest balance sheets will continue to increase their network share.

• Christopher Hui: The Hong Kong authorities propose expanding the eligible asset categories to include virtual assets, allowing such transactions to be exempt from profit tax.

On October 21, Hong Kong's Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui stated in his blog 'Treasury Forum' that the government plans to optimize the tax incentives currently provided to the asset and wealth management industry in various ways, taking the market to a higher level. In terms of expanding eligible asset classes, Hui mentioned that the authorities propose to broaden the range of eligible asset categories, in line with the overall financial development strategy of the Treasury Bureau, by adding carbon emission derivative tools/emission quotas, insurance-linked securities, loans and private debt investments, and virtual assets, allowing trading of such assets to also enjoy tax exemption on profits.

On the other hand, it is suggested that anyone operating financial institutions, insurance businesses, or lending businesses in Hong Kong who holds a beneficial interest of 10% or more in a fund will be deemed to have obtained taxable profits from income derived from loans or private debt investments in the fund. If the fund is associated with the individual, any percentage of beneficial interest will apply. Next, the Treasury Bureau will issue consultation documents on the overall proposal, collect and analyze opinions, and propose relevant legislative amendments to implement various optimizations, providing further impetus to industry development.

• The leader of the Japanese Democratic Party for the People proposes a tax reform plan to reduce the tax rate on cryptocurrency profits to 20%.

According to Cointelegraph, Yuichiro Tamaki, leader of Japan's Democratic Party (DPP), has proposed a cryptocurrency tax reform plan that, if elected, would lower the tax rate on returns from crypto assets to 20%. Currently, crypto gains in Japan are taxed as miscellaneous income, with rates ranging from 15% to 55%, with the highest rate of 55% for those with higher income, while the upper limit for stock gains tax is 20%. Tamaki stated in a social media post on October 20 that he hopes to align the crypto tax rate with that of stock trading by lowering it. Additionally, his plan includes no taxable event when exchanging different crypto assets, aiming to position Japan as a leader in Web3 businesses. Although DPP has only 7 seats in the House of Representatives and is expected to have difficulty obtaining a majority, Tamaki hopes to attract voter attention through this policy and boost the development of the crypto industry.

• European Central Bank report: Any Bitcoin price has the potential to reach as high as $10 million or higher.

According to a previous report from the European Central Bank (ECB), the current market value of bitcoin is between $50,000 to $60,000, but the report states that any bitcoin price has the same potential, including prices as high as $10 million or higher, because these prices have no specific economic basis or intrinsic value support. This indicates that the ECB believes that the pricing of bitcoin lacks a reasonable foundation in traditional economics, with high price volatility and unpredictability.

• The total net inflow of 0.294 billion US dollars was recorded in the Bitcoin spot ETF yesterday, achieving continuous net inflow for 7 consecutive days.

According to SoSoValue data, the total net inflow of the Bitcoin spot ETF reached 0.294 billion US dollars yesterday (October 21, US Eastern Time), maintaining net inflow for 7 consecutive days. Among them, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF had the highest single-day net inflow, reaching 0.329 billion US dollars, with a historical cumulative net inflow of 23.169 billion US dollars. Fidelity's Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund ETF had a single-day net inflow of 5.9042 million US dollars, accumulating a net inflow of 10.31 billion US dollars.

In contrast, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust recorded a net outflow of 4.8493 million US dollars in a single day, with a total historical net outflow of 20.101 billion US dollars. The total net asset value of the Bitcoin spot ETF is currently 65.337 billion US dollars, accounting for 4.88% of the total Bitcoin market value, with a historical cumulative net inflow of 21.231 billion US dollars.

Editor/rice