同时，也有投资者担心如果市场平稳度过11月，而自己出于避险需求减少了风险敞口，则没能抓住下一波可能的涨势。In November, market risk events are gathering, with investors hedging risks while worrying about missing the opportunity to buy the dip. Over the past week, traders have bought over 0.1 million units of S&P ETF call options for December, with each contract priced more than 5% above market premium. Analysis suggests that, based on statistics, when the market is overly hedged, the performance is usually good, with the median stock market gain exceeding 13% one year later.
With multiple risk events converging, will the volatility of the US stock market return? The market is starting to prepare for a rebound in advance.
In the upcoming November, a series of risks such as the US election, interest rate decisions in Europe and the US, Middle East situation, and Q3 financial reports of US stocks will be released intensively. Currently, the volatility of the US asset market has collectively increased, and investors are paying higher premiums due to risk aversion.
At the same time, some investors are worried that if the market remains stable in November and they reduce their risk exposure due to risk aversion, they may miss out on the potential next uptrend.
Some investors are already preparing for a year-end rebound. Data shows that in the past week, traders bought over 0.1 million units of s&p ETF call options for December, with each contract priced at $615, a market premium of over 5%.
Previously mentioned by Wall Street News, a report from Goldman Sachs last week showed that after 8 consecutive weeks of selling, hedge funds aggressively bought US stocks at the fastest rate in 4 months, with the speed of buying information technology stocks being the fastest in 5 months.
On the 21st, Carson Block, the founder of the once-famous short-selling hedge fund Muddy Waters, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television:
"Maybe don't overthink it, just close your eyes and buy the Mag7."
Signs indicate that the US stock market still faces many positive factors.
Although the VIX volatility index and other indicators measuring the cost of options remain high, the actual volatility of the one-month S&P 500 index options has dropped by more than half since mid-August, approaching a three-month low, which may attract funds back into the market.
Furthermore, the Q3 earnings season for US stocks has started well, with strong performance from large banks; considering that US companies will start repurchasing in less than 2 weeks, it is expected to inject liquidity back into the market.
Historical data also shows that in election years, the median return rate of the S&P can exceed 7%, higher than the average of 5.2%.
Nomura Securities' cross-asset strategist Charlie McElligott commented:
"Due to multiple events occurring simultaneously, buyers are forced to excessively hedge risk management. Global investors are extremely focused on the 'worst-case scenario' left tail risk."
"From a statistical perspective, when the market is overly hedged, the performance is usually good, with the median stock market return rate exceeding 13% a year later."
