维持“增持”评级：公司前三季度实现营收 283.14 亿元，同比+18.84%，归母净利润54.79 亿元，同比+32.79%，24Q3 实现营收99.74 亿元，同比+13.41%，归母净利润19.80 亿元，同比+53.54%，符合预期。考虑到以旧换新等政策支持下乘用车景气持续性增强，上调公司2024-26 年EPS 为2.88(+0.23)/3.41(+0.32)/4.04(+0.50)元，参考可比25 年PE 为20.53 倍，目标价70.00 元。Introduction to this report:
The company's 2024 three-quarter report was in line with expectations. The passenger car boom continued under policy mitigation, and maintained strong revenue growth capacity under the high Q3 base. At the same time, the company's improved quality and efficiency, reduced raw fuel costs, and increased capacity utilization led to a new high gross margin.
Key points of investment:
Maintaining an “increase in holdings” rating: The company achieved revenue of 28.314 billion yuan in the first three quarters, +18.84% year on year, net profit of 5.479 billion yuan, +32.79% year on year, 24Q3 achieved revenue of 9.974 billion yuan, +13.41% year on year, and net profit of 1.98 billion yuan year on year, +53.54% year over year, in line with expectations. Considering the continued strengthening of the passenger car boom with the support of trade-in and other policies, the company's 2024-26 EPS was raised to 2.88 (+0.23) /3.41 (+0.32) /4.04 (+0.50) yuan, which is 20.53 times the comparable 25-year PE, and the target price is 70.00 yuan.
The passenger car boom continued under the easing of policies, and maintained strong revenue growth capacity under the high Q3 base. In Q3, the company's revenue in a single quarter was +13.41% year-on-year, and +5% month-on-month. According to the China Automobile Association, domestic passenger car sales in Q3 fell slightly by 2% year on year, but passenger car sales in September were corrected year on year, maintaining sales resilience under a high base. In the context of trade-in and updated subsidy standards, the passenger car boom continued to pick up. In the first three quarters, the company's ASP was +8.84pct year-on-year, driving the company's revenue growth leading the industry, confirming that there is still room for improvement in the company's penetration rate of high-value products such as panoramic sunroofs/HUDs.
Improving quality and efficiency and falling raw fuel costs have driven gross margins to new highs. On the gross profit side, 24Q3 achieved a comprehensive gross profit margin of 38.78%, +2.47pct year on year and +1.05pct month-on-month, continuing to hit new quarterly highs, thanks to the company's continuous improvement in quality and efficiency, increased capacity utilization, and declining soda ash prices. On the net profit side, after deducting non-net profit of 1.974 billion yuan in 24Q3 (including 0.124 billion exchange losses), the company's 24Q3 net interest rate was 21.03% after the impact of exchange, and the net interest rate remained high. Profits brought about by the improvement in the cost environment remain in the glass segment, which means that Fuyao has a stable pattern in the OEM market. In an environment where car manufacturers cut prices, the company has relatively strong bargaining power.
The construction of production lines for high-value products has been accelerated, and the global share has further increased. In the first three quarters of 24, the company built fixed assets, intangible assets and other long-term assets to pay 3.7 billion yuan in cash, starting a new round of capital expenditure cycle, mainly for the continuous expansion of domestic and overseas automotive glass supporting production lines. Currently, the company's domestic and overseas automotive glass production capacity is about 40 million sets. As domestic production capacity in Fuqing and Anhui and the second phase of production capacity in North America are put into operation, the capital expenditure cycle under the new round of product upgrades is expected to lead the company to continue to increase its global share.
Risk warning: Overseas car market recovery fell short of expectations, and raw material prices rose more than expected
