For a long time, the continuously expanding trade deficit of the USA, the accumulation of 35 trillion US dollars in debt, and the continuous decline in the purchasing power of the US dollar have always been considered $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ key pillars of the bull market.

Even the possibility of the Republican candidate Trump winning the election in November is seen as a recent driving force for cryptos. Currently, the world's largest crypto is just a few percentage points away from its historical high.

However, there is a situation of a structural bull market that has not received much attention, and it may have a significant impact on the long-term price of bitcoin: tokens lost due to trends in holding or simply poor planning.

This debate has recently resurfaced because an HBO documentary released this month may reveal the identity of bitcoin's creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. Before the premiere of the documentary, some speculated that Nakamoto's true identity was the late American computer programmer Len Sassaman, who passed away in 2011.

Nakamoto's death may alleviate the massive fear that has loomed over the Bitcoin market for years, that this individual may sell the estimated 1 million bitcoins they are believed to hold.

Among the existing 21 million bitcoins, this accounts for a significant proportion. For a long time, people have been worried that such large-scale sales could have a negative impact on Bitcoin.

If Satoshi Nakamoto did not leave proper instructions for transferring assets after his death, the fixed supply of Bitcoin may be closer to 20 million.

Sean Farrell, Head of Digital Asset Strategy at Fundstrat, emphasized this dynamic in a report earlier this month.

"If they determine that Satoshi Nakamoto is deceased, there is a slight upward risk for Bitcoin, because this effectively means that this portion of the supply has been completely 'burned'," Farrell said.

"Bitcoin's actual circulation is undoubtedly less than 21 million," Farrell told Business Insider. "We all know this is true, but it is almost impossible to verify."

This is also because even if holders are still alive, losing Bitcoin is relatively easy.

Lost bitcoins essentially equate to being 'burned,' reducing the amount investors can purchase and reinforcing a fundamental economic principle: decreasing supply in the face of constant or increasing demand means higher prices.

Farrell estimates that approximately 1.5 million bitcoins (about 7.5% of the total supply) may be considered 'potentially lost' as they have not moved since the establishment of the first Bitcoin exchange in 2010, roughly one year after Bitcoin was created.

A report in 2021 by The New Yorker introduced a man from Wales who accidentally threw away a hard drive containing bitcoins into a landfill, losing a batch of bitcoins worth about $0.5 billion at the time.

"Perhaps only with the passage of time can we understand how much the supply of bitcoins has been lost," Farrell said.

Seasoned investors with a large amount of bitcoins usually store cryptocurrencies in encrypted cold wallets to prevent hacker attacks.

In these cases, this means that bitcoins are not stored on exchanges like Coinbase, which provides a recovery process for deceased customers' family members.

Instead, these investors typically store cryptocurrencies on physical USB drives, which may seem meaningless to some and can easily get lost or overlooked in the chaos of estate cleaning.

The decentralized nature of Bitcoin means that without the wallet or hard drive's private keys, no banks or institutions can access or recover the assets.

"Unlike traditional financial accounts, for holders, there is no institution to contact for the recovery of cryptocurrencies. If no one knows your private keys, your assets will be permanently locked," said Eric Lemieux, CEO of Wealthica.

He added, "If you store bitcoins in a cold wallet but one day you pass away without giving anyone the private keys to access the bitcoins, then those bitcoins may be lost forever."

According to Lemieux, bitcoin investors who hold assets in cold wallets must ensure that their estate planning "includes your private key or a phrase that can recover assets through a lawyer or secure storage" is very necessary.

Otherwise, more losses in bitcoin could mean pushing up its price.

Editor/rice