10年期美债的收益率最近一次触及5%是在去年10月，这是自2007年以来的最高水平，因为市场对长期高利率的担忧笼罩着市场。如果侯赛因的预测被证明是准确的，动荡的重新定价可能会发生，策略师目前预计10年期美债收益率在明年第二季度将降至平均3.67%。T. Rowe Price states that against the backdrop of rising inflation expectations and concerns about US fiscal spending, the yield on the US 10-year benchmark bonds may soon reach a key level.
T. Rowe Price's Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income, Arif Husain, said: "In the next 6 months, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bonds will test the 5% threshold, making the yield curve steeper." Husain helps manage around $180 billion in assets for the company. He wrote in a report that the fastest path to reach 5% "would involve a small rate cut by the Fed."
Following the Federal Reserve's first rate cut in 4 years last month, this forecast sharply contrasts with market expectations of declining yields. It also underscores that the debate in the world's largest bond market is intensifying after strong economic data raised doubts about the pace of rate cuts.
The last time the 10-year US bond yield touched 5% was in October last year, the highest level since 2007, as market concerns about long-term high rates loomed. If Husain's forecast proves accurate, turbulent repricing may occur, with strategists currently expecting the 10-year US bond yield to drop to an average of 3.67% in the second quarter of next year.
On Monday, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield remained at 4.08%.
Husain stated that the US Treasury Department's continuous issuance of bonds to fill the government deficit has flooded the market with new bond supply. Simultaneously, the Fed's algo tightening policy—aimed at reducing its balance sheet after years of bond purchases—has eliminated a key source of demand for government bonds.
Husain, who also serves as the head of T. Rowe Price's Fixed Income Department, mentioned that the yield curve may steepen further, as any increase in short-term US bond yields will be limited by rate cuts.
Husain stated that the most likely scenario for the Fed is a period of small rate cuts, comparable to the rate cuts seen from 1995 to 1998.
It is also possible to have a normal loose cycle, at which point the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates closer to the neutral level, according to Hussein, who said the neutral interest rate may be around 3%. He also considered a scenario where the United States falls into a recession, which would stimulate significant spending cuts.
Hussein wrote,"Investors who, like me, believe that a recession is unlikely in the near term should consider preparing for a rise in long-term government bond yields."
