近期，比特币市场再次迎来了一波显著的上涨行情。比特币昨日站上69000美元，为7月末以来首次。今日，比特币价格最高上触69487美元，逼近0.07 million美元重要关口，自10月11日反弹以来已累计上涨超14%。同时，以太币以及其他加密货币也出现不同程度上涨。

今年以来，比特币已经累计上涨63%，远超标普500指数的23%，同时跑赢了全球大类资产。

得益于加密货币市场的强劲，美股数字货币概念股近期全线上扬。上周五， $MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$ 收涨11.6%，创收盘新高，近20日累计涨幅更是近50%； $CleanSpark (CLSK.US)$ 涨近10%，近20日涨幅也超过40%； $Coinbase (COIN.US)$ Closing up nearly 8%, with a nearly 30% increase over the last 20 days; $Iris Energy (IREN.US)$ Rising over 6%, with a more than 26% increase over the last 20 days. $Cipher Mining (CIFR.US)$ Despite only rising 3% last Friday, it has the largest increase in the past 20 days among digital currency concept stocks, accumulating more than 71% increase.

It is worth noting that MicroStrategy has been the most remarkable performer so far this year, with a cumulative increase of over 240% year-to-date. Following closely behind is $TeraWulf (WULF.US)$ , with a total surge of over 118% this year.

Multiple bullish factors are driving the increase in bitcoin.

Data compiled by institutions shows that in the six trading days leading up to October 18 (last Friday), all bitcoin spot ETFs in the US stock market collectively attracted approximately $2.4 billion in net inflows. This influx of funds undoubtedly provided strong support for the rise in bitcoin prices.

Recently, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) granted "accelerated approval" to 11 exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on regulatory filings, allowing these funds to be listed and traded on the New York Stock Exchange with options linked to the spot bitcoin price. This decision, following the SEC's approval of bitcoin-tracking ETFs in January, further signifies a significant turning point for bitcoin and its related industry, providing institutional investors and traders with a fast and cost-effective way to expand their exposure to bitcoin.

Among the approved funds are$Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC.US)$,$ARK 21Shares Active Bitcoin Futures Strategy ETF (ARKA.US)$,$Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF (BTCO.US)$,$Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC.US)$and $iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT.US)$.

Among them, blackrock bitcoin spot ETF $iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT.US)$ The grayscale bitcoin trust is currently the largest exchange-traded fund directly investing in bitcoin, with net assets of $26.5 billion. The bitcoin ETF has risen over 15% in the past 6 trading days; since trading on Nasdaq on January 11 this year, it has risen nearly 40%.

Recently, the "Trump trade" has made a comeback, and the rise in bitcoin is also related to people betting on Trump's increased chances of winning the US election. It is understood that the Republican candidate Trump has publicly expressed support for cryptocurrencies multiple times, to the extent that bitcoin is seen as the core beneficiary asset target of the so-called "Trump trade". The market closely links the movement of bitcoin prices to Trump's chances of winning, making bitcoin prices a key indicator for assessing the election outcome. However, while Harris's stance is not as strong as Trump's, she has also made it clear that she will be more friendly to the cryptocurrency industry.

Last month, Standard Chartered Bank stated that regardless of the outcome of the US presidential election, it is expected that by the end of 2024, the bitcoin trading price will reach a new all-time high; if Trump wins, the bitcoin price could be pushed up to $125,000, while a Harris victory would also benefit bitcoin, with prices potentially rising to $75,000.

Bernstein predicts that a Trump victory will undoubtedly boost the price of bitcoin; a Harris victory will suppress the bitcoin price to $0.03 million, a fluctuation that could potentially mark the largest risk to date.

From a technical perspective, analyst Ali Martine stated that bitcoin has crossed the 200-day moving average, signaling that the ongoing bullish trend in the cryptocurrency market is strengthening. In the three previous instances (in 2023, 2021, and 2017) that bitcoin broke the 200-day moving average, it triggered a massive parabolic bull market. Therefore, there is reason to believe that this breakthrough will also bring a significant upward movement in bitcoin.

The most recent breakthrough of the 200-day moving average occurred around May 2023, when bitcoin surged from around $19,400 to over $73,000 in March 2024, with an astonishing increase of 274.79% during that period.

Similarly, during the 2021 cycle, bitcoin breaking through this moving average stimulated a significant price increase, accumulating a 704.94% rise.

The 2017 cycle was even more exciting, with bitcoin's price rising from around $240 to over $20,000, a cumulative increase of 7,513.24%.

Additionally, from the perspective of the calendar effect, bitcoin has historically shown strong performance in October and is expected to continue throughout the entire Q4. Sean Farrell, the Head of Digital Assets Strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors LLC, also emphasized that bitcoin typically experiences a seasonal rally in the second half of October.

Editor / jayden