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研报掘金|国泰君安:上调台积电目标价至238美元 上调2024至26年营收及盈利预测

Research reports | GTJA: Raises taiwan semiconductor's target price to $238, raises 2024-2026 revenue and profit forecasts.

Gelonghui Finance ·  Oct 21 14:12  · Ratings

On October 21, gtja released a report, raising taiwan semiconductor's revenue forecast for 2024 to 2026 to 2885.8 billion, 3751.7 billion, and 4375.8 billion New Taiwan dollars (previously 2819.8 billion, 3497 billion, and 4057 billion New Taiwan dollars), and raising GAAP net income forecast to 1184.4 billion, 1675.7 billion, and 1991.6 billion New Taiwan dollars (previously 1114.2 billion, 1437.6 billion, and 1691.1 billion New Taiwan dollars). The bank raised its target price to $238, maintaining a "shareholding" rating. gtja stated that taiwan semiconductor achieved a gross margin of 57.8% in the third quarter, an annual increase of 3.5 percentage points and a quarterly increase of 4.6 percentage points, far exceeding the market's consensus expectation of 54.8%. The main reason is the improvement in production capacity utilization; guided gross margin for the fourth quarter is expected to be between 57% and 59%, significantly higher than the market's consensus expectation of 54.7%, with further upside potential. The demand for AI is confirmed, and the competitive landscape of wafer foundry is experiencing marginal changes, strengthening taiwan semiconductor's competitive advantage. The CoWoS production capacity for 2025 is expected to double, and progress in overseas fabs is accelerating.

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