UBS Group released a report stating that the UBS Evidence Lab surveyed 2,500 mainland Chinese consumers on China's housing market from August 4 to September 4. The results showed that with the cancellation of stamp duty in Hong Kong, 29% of the respondents expressed interest in buying property in Hong Kong, with 18% of them planning to enter the market in the next two years. Hong Kong remains the top choice for property investment outside the mainland. The bank believes that mainland buyers' interest in Hong Kong properties will further increase, which is positive for the Hong Kong property market, especially in new property sales. Their intention to immigrate to Hong Kong also supports the bank's positive outlook on the future population growth in Hong Kong, leading to a structural upward trend in residential rentals (with a compound annual growth rate of 5% from 2024 to 2030). In addition to further lowering mortgage rates, the bank expects Hong Kong property prices to rebound next year, adjusting their initial forecast from flat to a 5% increase. In terms of budget, the respondents indicated the target for buying property in Hong Kong is below 8 million RMB.
Among the stocks covered by the bank, they prefer developers' stocks over house rental companies and are bullish on Henderson Land, Kerry Properties, Sino Land, and SHK Properties.