巴西原油增长快速，中海油深耕已久。巴西是目前原油主要增长来源地之一，根据IEA 数据，2019-2023 近5 年复合增速达到4.0%，产量全球排名第八。挪威能源咨询公司Rystad 表示，年初巴西国家石油公司的油田检修和其他非计划停工已经恢复，7 月巴西原油和凝析油产量增加了10.7 万桶/日，达到352 万桶/日，且今年剩余时间将继续增加，年底原油和凝析油产量将达到376 万桶/日。此外，明年巴西原油平均产量将超过390 万桶/日。2013 年10 月，中国海油携手巴西国家石油公司、道达尔、壳牌、中国石油组成联合投标体，中标全球第三大盐下超深水油田里贝拉区块，十多年以来，中国海油与合作伙伴密切合作对当地石油资源进行勘探开采，同时在交流中积累技术经验。此后，中国海油成功持股全球最大的深水盐下油田巴西布济乌斯项目，又在2022 年顺利完成布济乌斯项目权益增持，成为巴西国家石油公司在该油田的最大合作伙伴。Description of the event
On October 17, China National Offshore Oil Co., Ltd. announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary CnoocPetroleum Brasil Ltda has signed separate mineral tax oil contracts with partners from the Brazilian National Petroleum Administration and the Pelotas Basin for 4 offshore exploration blocks in Brazil.
Four mineral tax oil contracts were signed, and the contract signed this time involved the Santos Basin S-M-1813 and Pelotas Basin P-M-1737/39/97, which won the fourth round of Brazilian open block (mineral tax system) tenders. A total of 4 blocks are all located in Brazilian waters, with a total area of about 2,600 square kilometers and a depth of 600 meters to 3,000 meters. CnoocPetroleum Brasil Ltda has 100% operator rights in block S-M-1813 and 20% non-operator rights in the three blocks P-M-1737/39/97 respectively. Petrobras is the operator of the three blocks P-M-1737/39/97 and Shell holds 30% of the non-operator rights.
Brazilian crude oil is growing rapidly, and CNOOC has been deeply involved for a long time. Brazil is currently one of the main sources of crude oil growth. According to IEA data, the compound growth rate reached 4.0% in the past 5 years from 2019 to 2023, ranking eighth in the world in terms of production. Norwegian energy consulting firm Rystad said that Brazil's oil field maintenance and other unplanned shutdowns have resumed at the beginning of the year. Brazil's crude oil and condensate production increased by 0.107 million b/d in July to 3.52 million b/d, and will continue to increase for the rest of the year. Crude oil and condensate production will reach 3.76 million b/d by the end of the year. Furthermore, next year, Brazil's average crude oil production will exceed 3.9 million b/d. In October 2013, CNOOC joined forces with Petrobras, Total, Shell, and CNPC to win the bid for the Ribeira block of the world's third-largest subsaline ultra-deep-water oil field. Over the past 10 years, CNOOC has closely cooperated with partners to explore and extract local petroleum resources, while accumulating technical experience through exchanges. Since then, CNOOC successfully held a stake in the Buzius project in Brazil, the world's largest deep-water salt oil field, and successfully completed the increase in equity in the Buzius project in 2022, becoming Petrobras's largest partner in this oil field.
Currently, CNOOC has 10% interest in the Ribeira block and 7.34% interest in the Buzius project in Brazil. Both projects are located in the Santos Basin. On July 31, 2024, Brazil's Salt Oil Management Company (PPSA) held the 2025 crude oil tender. CNOOC successfully won the No. 2 bid for 12 million barrels of Mero crude oil from the Ribeira Oilfield. This is the first time in Brazil that a Chinese company has won a bid for PPSA Brazilian government equity oil in the form of an on-site public auction.
Active capital expenditure promotes increased storage and production. CNOOC is leading the industry in recent years. In recent years, CNOOC has continued to implement active capital expenditure to ensure the achievement of the strategic goal of increasing storage and production, adhering to the strategy of increasing storage and production, and laying out a global layout. Since 2016, capital has continued to grow. The company's capital expenditure CAGR has reached 13.01% over the past 8 years. Capital expenditure for the full year of 2023 was a record high of 129.6 billion yuan. Capital expenditure for the first half of 2024 was 63.125 billion yuan, up 11.7% from the same period last year. The 2024 budget capital expenditure is $125-135 billion. Under the guarantee of continuous capital expenditure, the company's reserves and output growth rate are leading the industry. Oil and gas production in 2023 was 678 million barrels of oil equivalent, a record high for 5 consecutive years. The 2024-2026 oil and gas production targets are 700-720, 780-800, 810-830 million barrels. The 2024-2025 production target is significantly higher than the previous year's guidance.
Investment advice
The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 149.449, 159.893, and 172.077 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.7%, 7.0%, and 7.6%. Corresponding PE was 9.04, 8.45, and 7.86 times, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
(1) The progress of the new project falls short of expectations;
(2) Crude oil and natural gas prices fluctuate greatly;
(3) Changes in industry policies.
