根据上述模型，截至发稿，Various data currently show that former USA President Trump seems to have a greater chance of winning; There are predictive models showing that Trump's chances of winning exceeded Vice President Harris for the first time on October 19th.
According to Caixin News on October 21st (Editor: Huang Junzhi), with only about two weeks left until the official US presidential election, the competition between the two presidential candidates is gradually intensifying and entering the final sprint stage. However, various data currently show that former USA President Trump seems to have a greater chance of winning.
According to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), the prediction model, Trump's chances of winning exceeded Vice President Harris for the first time on October 19th.
According to the above model, as of the time of writing, Trump's chances of winning are 52%, while Harris' chances of winning are only 42%.
Since late August, the model has been predicting a 54%-56% chance of Harris winning and a 44%-46% chance of Trump winning. The initial shift occurred in early October, reaching a fifty-fifty situation, and now Trump has finally surpassed Harris.
At the same time, Trump's popularity has also improved in the polls in Wisconsin and Michigan, where these battleground states previously slightly favored Harris. In addition, Trump has a slight advantage in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
Among the seven swing states considered to determine the outcome of the 2024 election, Pennsylvania is the only state still supporting Harris in the average polls.
On the other hand, in the gambling market, the balance of victory is clearly leaning towards Trump. According to the average betting market provided by RealClearPolitics for combined betting odds, Trump's chances of winning have reached 57.9%, far ahead of Democratic competitor Harris' 41%.
Billionaire investor and founder of Duquesne Family Office, Stanley Druckenmiller, stated last week that in the past 12 days, the market seemed "very convinced that Trump would win", mentioning "you can see this in bank stocks and the crypto market".
He mentioned that the market is digesting the expectation of Trump's victory in the upcoming US presidential election next month. Many experts believe that, considering the current market environment, factors favoring Trump's victory are already reflected in the strong stock market. They believe that Trump will implement business policies favorable to the stock market.
"You can see this in bank stocks, as well as in cryptos. The KBW regional bank index has risen by 10% in the past month, and bitcoin has risen by 9%." he added.
JPMorgan's Global Head of Market Strategies, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, also commented, "The market trends of the past two weeks indicate a growing likelihood of a Republican landslide."
The financial market trends he referred to include: strong stock market performance, especially in bank stocks, a strengthening US dollar, and rising US bond yields.
Editor/ping
