美银指出，考虑到铝土矿、氧化铝和铝的供需动态，美银倾向于认为铝更多的是一种“资本”(而不是“资源”)业务，但由于中国自行设定的4500万吨产量上限，铝市场供应受到限制，可能使市场在中期处于供应短缺状态。该行预计2023-2026年铝土矿/氧化铝和冶炼铝的全球供应增加的复合年增长率为4.6%/2.5%/2.1%。Aluminum stocks rose in early trading, as of the time of publication, China Hongqiao (01378) rose by 3.59% to HK$13.86; Aluminum Corporation of China (02600) rose by 1.45% to HK$6.31.
Zhongtong Finance and Economics APP learned that aluminum stocks rose in early trading, as of the time of publication, China Hongqiao (01378) rose by 3.59% to HK$13.86; Aluminum Corporation of China (02600) rose by 1.45% to HK$6.31.
HSBC Global Research released a research report stating that in September, China's steel/aluminum exports increased significantly by 26%/19% year-on-year, and metal prices such as aluminum rebounded in the recent market sentiment improvement. Therefore, HSBC stated in the research report that with the rebound of base metal prices in the improved market sentiment, and the stronger performance of base metals in the peak season, aluminum prices still have potential for further increase. Given the strong fundamentals, the bank is bullish on the overall size of the Chinese aluminum metal market, maintaining a "buy" rating on Aluminum Corporation of China and Chinahongqiao.
Bank of America pointed out that considering the supply and demand dynamics of bauxite, alumina, and aluminum, Bank of America tends to think that aluminum is more of a "capital" (rather than "resource") business. However, due to the 45 million ton production limit set by China itself, the aluminum market supply is restricted, which may result in a supply shortage in the medium term. The bank expects a compound annual growth rate of 4.6%/2.5%/2.1% for global bauxite/alumina and smelting aluminum supply from 2023 to 2026.
