According to the latest Markets Live Pulse survey, despite the US presidential election being the main uncertainty factor, the crazy rebound of US stocks this year is expected to continue until the final stage of 2024.

According to the median estimate of 411 respondents, the S&P 500 index is expected to close at 5,977 points this year, about 2% higher than the closing price of 5,865 points last Friday. Year-to-date, the benchmark index has risen by 23%, setting 47 record closing highs.

The MLIV Pulse survey was conducted from October 14th to 18th on Bloomberg News terminals and global online readers, including portfolio managers, economists, and retail investors.

Earnings season will boost US stocks.

This week, US stocks will face a key test, with about 20% of S&P 500 index component companies planning to release earnings, including heavyweight companies.$Tesla (TSLA.US)$and $IBM Corp (IBM.US)$.

According to Bloomberg Intelligence data, around 70 S&P 500 index component companies have already reported earnings, with 76% of the companies reporting earnings that exceeded expectations.

As respondents maintain optimism towards US stocks, the US presidential election has entered its final stage, with polls showing the two candidates neck and neck.

Three-quarters of the respondents expect that this financial reporting season will boost US stocks, and in terms of stock performance, the strength of US corporate performance is considered more crucial than who wins the November election, or even the policy path of the Federal Reserve.

The majority of respondents (45%) believe that the strength of corporate performance is most important for their stock investment portfolios, 39% think it's the election results, and 16% believe it's the extent of Federal Reserve easing.

"I know the election will bring a lot of emotions, but don't let these emotions affect your investment portfolio," said Brian Spinelli, Co-Chief Investment Officer at Halbert Hargrove, a wealth advisory firm.

Tech giants are expected to lead the way once again.

Apart from Tesla, the other members of the magnificent 7 in the US stock market ( $Apple (AAPL.US)$N/A.$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$and$Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$N/A.$Amazon (AMZN.US)$,$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$and $Meta Platforms (META.US)$Performance will be announced later this month.

These tech giants have been the main driving force behind the rise in US stocks since last year, but due to the Federal Reserve's first rate cut since 2020, they lagged behind in the last quarter, with sectors like finance and utilities receiving boosts.

Respondents expect that tech giants will once again lead the US stocks. Around 75% of people expect that the performance of the "Magnificent 7" this quarter will either exceed or be on par with other companies in the market. One reason investors remain optimistic is that most of the profit growth of the S&P 500 index components still comes from the "Seven Giants".

Tech stock observers will closely watch Nvidia's earnings report to be released in November. Its last earnings report caused its stock price to drop over the next few days. This time, 45% of the respondents believe that Nvidia's financial report will boost its stock price. Nvidia has been a shining example of artificial intelligence technology prosperity, with its stock price almost doubling this year.

Anastasia Amoroso, Chief Investment Strategist at ICCapital, said: "After a lackluster quarter, the rebound of the 'magnificent 7' in the technology sector is currently worth trading attention to."

It is worth noting that, although respondents show great enthusiasm for technology stocks, they also expect the financial sector to lead the s&p 500 index this quarter.

Boosted by strong Wall Street earnings, the financial sector has risen 5% since October, setting a record among the 11 industry categories of the s&p 500 index. When the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, bank stocks often perform well because the rate cut stimulates lending and other economic activities.

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