据Kostin的团队称，他们的预测结果在-1%到7%的区间内，并指出，“这个范围大致符合我们所估计的95%置信区间，反映了预测未来所固有的不确定性。”①According to Goldman Sachs, the annualized return rate of the S&P 500 index in the next 10 years is expected to be only 3%; ② In comparison, the total annualized return rate of the index in the past 10 years reached 13%; ③ As of 2024, the S&P 500 index has already risen by over 23%, but there is still uncertainty in the future.
On October 21, financial media reported (Editor Zhou Ziyi) according to Goldman Sachs, the annualized return rate of the S&P 500 index in the next 10 years is only expected to be 3%, with an actual increase of only 1%. In comparison, the total annualized return rate of the index in the past 10 years was 13%.
Chief US stock strategist David Kostin of Goldman Sachs pointed out in a report that by 2034, the annualized nominal total return rate of the S&P 500 index is expected to be 3%, lower than the general expectation of 6%, and this percentile ranks only seventh since the decade return rate since 1930.
According to Kostin's team, their forecast results are within the range of -1% to 7%, and they pointed out, "This range broadly aligns with the 95% confidence interval we estimated, reflecting the inherent uncertainty in predicting the future."
The report also mentioned the annualized return rate of US stocks of up to 13% in the past 10 years, exceeding the long-term average level of 11%.
Since hitting a cyclical low on October 12, 2022, the US stock market has experienced a two-year bull market, with a cumulative increase of 62%. As of last Friday (October 18), the S&P 500 index once again hit a record high. Since 2024, the index has risen by over 23%.
Against the backdrop of the Fed's rate-cut cycle, strong economic data, rising profit expectations, and other factors, Wall Street has recently been raising its target levels.
Last week, Goldman Sachs technical strategist Scott Rubner expressed a strong bullish sentiment towards the US stock market. He is now concerned that the previously set target was too low, predicting a sharp rise in the S&P 500 index in November and December this year, which will push the index to break through 6,000 points by the end of 2024.
However, there are also views that after experiencing a strong performance in 2024, the s&p 500 index may sharply decline next year. Barry Bannister, the chief stock strategist of the well-known US investment bank Stifel, pointed out last week, "It's hard for the market to sustain these gains."
Bannister pointed out two reasons: first, one of the important drivers behind the current stock market rally is artificial intelligence, which is not a new technology; second, inflation pressure may reignite. It can be seen that there are various views among major institutions, and the future market trends may still be influenced by multiple factors.
