Track the entire lifecycle of the main sector.
Summary: ① Last Friday, the market strengthened with volume back above 2 trillion, the mid-term upward shaking structure may be further established; ② Technology stocks rose across the board, and the semiconductor industry chain concentrated on eruption, which may differentiate today; ③ With Nvidia's stock price hitting a new historical high again, and the latest news on the GB200, the demand for AI hardware direction remains strong; ④ Mergers and acquisitions + technology are still high-certainty short-term themes, high-standard leaders are strong, similar speculation may continue, while also paying attention to opportunities for low-altitude economic rotation.
Following the market's strengthening in the afternoon of last Friday, the volume once again expanded to over 2 trillion, reversing the structure of the index's previous relatively weak consolidation. However, it should be noted that there is still a certain amount of trapped selling pressure from the previous market correction, so there was a slight retreat in the final stage of trading last Friday. Although short-term rhythm may still fluctuate, the mid-term upward shaking structure in the market is further established.
On the market front, technology stocks rose across the board, led by the semiconductor industry chain. SMIC and Cambricon both hit the limit up, while Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc. China, Naura Technology Group, National Silicon Industry Group, and other core symbols also performed well. On one hand, the localization of semiconductors has become deeply ingrained and gradually become the consensus of the current market, while on the other hand, based on the latest Q3 earnings forecasts disclosed at present, most stocks are showing a high growth trend, and the expectation of the semiconductor industry cycle reversal may be further validated. However, after the concentrated outbreak in the afternoon of last Friday, there may be differentiation today, so the focus should still be on the core symbols at the forefront.
The AI hardware direction is also worth noting. On the news front, popular analyst Ming-Chi Kuo recently released the industry chain order information of Nvidia's Blackwell GB200 chip, showing that Microsoft is currently the world's largest GB200 customer, with a 3-4 times surge in orders in the fourth quarter of this year. Looking at the market, core symbols in the CPO and PCB have mostly returned to near previous highs, while the concept of high-speed copper cable connections shows even higher short-term elasticity. Shenzhen Woer Heat-Shrinkable Material, Shenyu Communication Technology Inc., and others have all set new phase highs, and under the influence of positive factors, the AI hardware direction still has the momentum to rise further. However, due to the high position of the relevant stocks, it is still prudent to wait patiently for a divergence and then intervene or be more cautious.
In addition, Huawei concept stocks should not be ignored. Although software represented by HarmonyOS experienced a consolidation last Friday, there was no clear negative feedback from funds, and the overall uptrend structure remained intact. Therefore, for the overall technology sector, it can still be considered a benign rotational trend. So, if the hardware direction is correcting from excessive gains, there is still a possibility that the software direction, after experiencing short-term consolidation, may continue to show strength.
From the perspective of short-term speculation, mergers and acquisitions + technology remain the most certain thematic direction. High-standard leader Hainan Shuangcheng Pharmaceuticals still has a streak of 21 days with 19 limit up closures, while Naura Technology Group, Optics Technology Holding, Wenyi Trinity Technology, and others have all successfully advanced. Therefore, before a clear negative feedback appears for the high-standard leader, similar imitative speculation may continue, and there may still be opportunities to find some low-level rally opportunities in the future. In addition, thematic directions such as low-altitude economy, vehicle-road-cloud integration, and resource recycling also have favorable policy catalysts, and related rotational opportunities can still be observed in the subsequent market.