火电电量基本持平，火电业绩展望稳健。三季度，得益于全社会用电稳步增长，虽然水电及新能源电量依然处于高位，但公司煤电依然完成上网电量1,077.04 亿千瓦时，同比减少0.29%；燃机完成上网电量88.03 亿千瓦时，同比增长8.69%。电价方面，公司前三季度中国境内各运行电厂平均上网结算电价为496.27 元/兆瓦时，同比下降2.63%，按上半年电量及电价测算，则三季度公司平均上网电价为492.35 元/兆瓦时，同比下降1.6%，考虑到低价新能源占比的提升影响，火电电价或维持稳定。成本方面，三季度秦皇岛港Q5500 动力末煤平仓价均值相较去年同期下降约18.10 元/吨，但若考虑电厂20 天左右的煤炭库存，按照6 月中旬-9 月中旬的参考时间段进行估算，2024 年均值相较2023 年上涨约13.58 元/吨，考虑到公司长协煤的平滑，预计公司成本端变化预计相对有限。因此整体来看，在火电业务量价成本均相对较为平稳的背景下，预计火电业务经营或实现稳健的经营业绩。Description of the event
The company issued an announcement on the completion of feed-in power for the first three quarters of 2024: in the third quarter of 2024, the company's operating power plants in China completed a feed-in capacity of 130.562 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 3.43%; in the first three quarters of 2024, the company's operating power plants in China completed a cumulative feed-in power supply of 341.24 billion kilowatt-hours according to the consolidated statement caliber, an increase of 1.14%; the average settlement price of the company's feed-in power plants in China in the first three quarters of 2024 was 496.27 Yuan/megawatt-hour, a year-on-year decrease of 2.63%.
Incident comments
The amount of thermal power is basically flat, and the outlook for thermal power performance is steady. In the third quarter, thanks to the steady increase in electricity consumption throughout society, although the amount of hydropower and new energy power is still high, the company's coal power still completed 107.704 billion kilowatt-hours of feed-in electricity, a decrease of 0.29% over the previous year; combustion engines completed 8.803 billion kilowatt-hours of feed-in electricity, an increase of 8.69% over the previous year. In terms of electricity prices, the average online settlement price for the company's operating power plants in China in the first three quarters was 496.27 yuan/megawatt-hour, down 2.63% from the previous year. Based on the electricity volume and electricity prices in the first half of the year, the company's average feed-in price in the third quarter was 492.35 yuan/megawatt-hour, down 1.6% year on year. Considering the impact of the increase in the share of low-cost new energy sources, thermal power prices may remain stable. In terms of cost, the average price of Q5500 coal liquidation at Qinhuangdao Port in the third quarter decreased by about 18.10 yuan/ton compared to the same period last year. However, when considering the power plant's coal inventory for about 20 days and estimated according to the reference period from mid-June to mid-September, the 2024 average rose by about 13.58 yuan/ton compared to 2023. Considering the smoothness of the company's Changxie Coal, changes on the company's cost side are expected to be relatively limited. Therefore, overall, the thermal power business is expected to operate or achieve steady operating results against the backdrop of relatively stable volume, price and cost of the thermal power business.
The pressure on new energy sources was relieved, and performance continued to improve month-on-month. In the first three quarters, the company added a total of 1.4675 million kilowatts of wind power installations and 3.7531 million kilowatts of photovoltaic installations. Driven by the rapid growth of new energy installed capacity, the company completed 7.951 billion kilowatt-hours of wind power in the third quarter, an increase of 25.65% year-on-year, and a year-on-month increase of 23.85 percentage points; PV completed feed-in power of 5.685 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 71.06%, and a slight decrease of 3.51 percentage points from month to month. The operating pressure on the wind power business was significantly relieved, and the reason why the company's total profit for the new energy business fell 9.62% year on year in the second quarter was due to pressure on wind power. Therefore, driven by rapid growth in wind power, the company's new energy business profit in the third quarter may achieve steady growth. Furthermore, in the third quarter, Singapore Dashi Energy Co., Ltd., which is wholly owned by the company, had a market share of 18.6% in power generation, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous year. Considering that the pressure on the high base of the Singapore business has eased in the third quarter of last year, it is expected that overseas business may continue to perform steadily in the third quarter. Furthermore, since one-time income was generated in the third quarter of last year due to the delivery of hydropower in Sichuan, there is a high base impact on the company's performance in the third quarter, so there may be pressure on the company's performance in the third quarter compared to the same period. However, after excluding one-time revenue, due to stable domestic and overseas business performance, the company's overall business performance is expected to continue to be steady.
Investment advice: According to the latest operating data, we expect the company's EPS in 2024-2026 to be 0.79 yuan, 0.91 yuan, and 1.01 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 8.92 times, 7.73 times and 7.01 times, respectively. Maintain the company's “buy” rating.
Risk warning
1. There is a risk that electricity supply and demand will deteriorate;
2. There is an unseasonal risk in coal prices.
