With market prices lowering and significant promotions from February to April, after consumers wait for a period, their buying enthusiasm gradually increases in the third quarter. Driven by the national scrappage subsidy policy, the passenger vehicle market showed good retail performance in September 2024. Recent manufacturers have been relatively conservative in production and sales, leading to a significant destocking trend.

In September 2024, SUV retail sales increased by 7%, outperforming the industry by 3 percentage points. Due to the consumption upgrade trend, SUV demand has increased; car retail sales increased by 3% year-on-year, weaker than the industry by 1 percentage point, but car demand has significantly improved compared to the previous months; MPV retail sales declined by 4% year-on-year, significantly weaker than the industry by 8 percentage points. Car performance is lower than SUV, mainly due to poor performance of A0-class new energy cars, but the recent rebound of A00-class has significantly improved car demand.

From a structural perspective, low-end consumer market is sluggish, while high-end consumer market is strong. The B-segment in the car market performs well, with SUVs showing a stronger trend towards high-end transformation. The SUVs in the B and C segments are stronger compared to last year.

1. Trends in the economy passenger car market.

1. A00-level sedan market performance.

In September 2024, the wholesale volume of A00-level sedans was 0.1347 million units, accounting for 13.14% of the wholesale market share, a 60% year-on-year increase in wholesale compared to the same period last year, and a 39% month-on-month increase in wholesale compared to last month. In September 2024, retail increased by 39% year-on-year and 14% month-on-month compared to the same period last year and last month. From January to September 2024, the wholesale quantity was 0.7568 million units, with a cumulative increase in manufacturer wholesale sales of 48% compared to the same period last year. From January to September 2024, domestic retail quantity was 0.7812 million units, with a cumulative retail increase of 32%.

The A00-level market has returned to the competitive pattern of 20 years ago, when Chery, Geely, Chang'an, BYD and other companies had good A00-level products. Recently, BYD, Geely, Chang'an, Chery and other diversified A00-level main models and new products have shown outstanding performance, and the gradual increase in micro electric vehicles indicates potential incremental growth.

2. Trends in the main models of A0-level sedans.

In September 2024, the wholesale volume of A0-level sedans was 0.0999 million units, accounting for 9.75% of the wholesale market share, a 17% year-on-year decrease in wholesale compared to the same period last year, and a 33% month-on-month increase in wholesale compared to last month. In September 2024, retail decreased by 22% year-on-year and 1% month-on-month compared to the same period last year and last month. From January to September 2024, the wholesale quantity was 0.6457 million units, with a cumulative decrease in manufacturer wholesale sales of 28% compared to the same period last year. From January to September 2024, domestic retail quantity was 0.4276 million units, with a cumulative retail decrease of 30%.

The characteristics of the replacement of gasoline vehicles by independent electric vehicles are evident, and the competitive structure has shifted from being dominated by joint ventures to being dominated by independents. Japanese brands such as Toyota and Honda maintained a strong position in the early stages, but the trend of the fuel-efficient entry-level vehicles produced by independent brands has been relatively difficult in recent years.

The trend of full electrification of A0-level sedans is obvious, with basically no strong rbob gasoline car products, reflecting significant advantages of independent pure electric products.

3. Trends in A0-level SUV sales.

In September 2024, the wholesale volume of A0 SUVs was 0.1939 million units, accounting for 14% of the wholesale market share. The wholesale volume decreased by 5% year-on-year compared to the same period last year, but increased by 16% month-on-month. In September 2024, retail sales decreased by 18% year-on-year compared to the same period last year but increased by 1% month-on-month. From January to September 2024, the wholesale quantity was 1.4966 million units, with a cumulative 8% decrease in manufacturer wholesale sales. From January to September 2024, domestic retail sales reached 0.9087 million units, with a cumulative 14% decrease in retail sales.

Mainstream small SUVs from Japan and South Korea have basically exited the market, while domestically-produced electric vehicles have shown strong performance.

2. Trends in the A-level passenger car market.

Trends in the compact sedan block orders market.

In September 2024, the wholesale volume of A-class sedans was 0.4004 million units, accounting for 39.08% of the wholesale market share. The wholesale volume decreased by 17% year-on-year compared to the same period last year but increased by 10% month-on-month. In September 2024, retail sales decreased by 10% year-on-year compared to the same period last year but increased by 5% month-on-month. From January to September 2024, the wholesale quantity was 3.207 million units, with a cumulative 14% decrease in manufacturer wholesale sales. From January to September 2024, domestic retail sales reached 3.0519 million units, with a cumulative 11% decrease in retail sales.

The new energy fund dominates the mainstream sedan market, with BYD Company Limited leading the way, while Volkswagen's rbob gasoline vehicles still have some market space. Mainstream passenger vehicles are still the most practical choice for households.

Trends in the compact SUV block orders market.

In September 2024, the wholesale volume of A-level SUVs was 0.7412 million units, accounting for 53.53% of the wholesale market share, with a 4% year-on-year increase in wholesale compared to the same period last year, and an 18% month-on-month increase in wholesale from last month; The retail volume in September 2024 increased by 1% year-on-year compared to the same period last year, with a 15% month-on-month increase in retail from last month. From January to September 2024, the wholesale quantity was 5.3212 million units, with a cumulative increase in manufacturer's wholesale sales of 8%; From January to September 2024, the domestic retail quantity was 4.0117 million units, with a cumulative retail increase of 3%.

The mainstream SUV market landscape is changing rapidly, with BYD and Chery's SUVs performing exceptionally well, achieving comprehensive breakthroughs in domestic and international independent SUVs.

Trends in the B-class passenger vehicle market.

In June 2024, the wholesale of B-class passenger vehicles was 0.2883 million units, accounting for 31.42% of the wholesale share. Compared to the same period last year, the wholesale volume increased by 5% and increased by 6% compared to last month. The retail volume decreased by 3% compared to the same period last year and increased by 6% compared to last month. From January to June 2024, the wholesale volume was 1.5926 million units, with an increase of 14% in cumulative factory wholesale sales. The domestic retail volume from January to June 2024 was 1.4197 million units, with an increase of 10% cumulative sales.

In September 2024, the wholesale volume of B-class sedans was 0.3259 million units, accounting for 31.81% of the wholesale market share, with a 10% year-on-year increase in wholesale compared to the same period last year, and a 16% month-on-month increase in wholesale from last month; The retail volume in September 2024 increased by 25% year-on-year compared to the same period last year, with a 16% month-on-month increase in retail from last month. From January to September 2024, the wholesale quantity was 2.5024 million units, with a cumulative increase in manufacturer's wholesale sales of 14%; From January to September 2024, the domestic retail quantity was 2.27 million units, with a cumulative retail increase of 12%.

The high-end sedan market of Japanese brands is rapidly shrinking, while the high-end new energy domestic brands are quickly rising, especially in the high-end market for rental car-hailing services being dominated by domestic electric vehicles.

In June 2024, the wholesale of B-class SUVs was 0.3633 million units, accounting for 31.17% of the wholesale share. Compared to the same period last year, the wholesale volume increased by 25% and increased by 16% compared to last month. The retail volume increased by 22% compared to the same period last year and increased by 13% compared to last month. From January to June 2024, the wholesale volume was 1.7951 million units, with an increase of 31% in cumulative factory wholesale sales. The domestic retail volume from January to June 2024 was 1.5876 million units, with an increase of 29% cumulative sales.

In September 2024, the wholesale of B-segment SUVs reached 0.4067 million units, accounting for 29.37% of the wholesale market share, with a 26% year-on-year increase in wholesale compared to the same period last year, a 9% increase in wholesale compared to last month; Retail sales in September 2024 increased by 29% year-on-year, with a 9% increase compared to last month. From January to September 2024, the wholesale quantity reached 2.8937 million units, with a cumulative increase of 27% in manufacturers' wholesale sales; From January to September 2024, the domestic retail quantity reached 2.5427 million units, with a cumulative increase of 27% in retail sales.

The high-end SUV market's rapid rise of domestic new energy vehicles weakens the dominance of traditional premium gasoline vehicles, with recent slowing down of premium brands such as BMW.

In June 2024, the wholesale of B-class MPVs was 0.0516 million units, accounting for 60.01% of the wholesale share. Compared to the same period last year, the wholesale volume decreased by 2% and increased by 2% compared to last month. The retail volume decreased by 3% compared to the same period last year and remained unchanged compared to last month. From January to June 2024, the wholesale volume was 0.2713 million units, with no cumulative change in factory wholesale sales. The domestic retail volume from January to June 2024 was 0.2648 million units, with a cumulative decrease of 1% sales.

In September 2024, the wholesale of B-segment MPVs reached 0.0589 million units, accounting for 61.88% of the wholesale market share, with a 3% year-on-year decrease in wholesale compared to the same period last year and a 4% increase in wholesale compared to last month; Retail sales in September 2024 decreased by 1% year-on-year, with a 1% increase compared to last month. From January to September 2024, the wholesale quantity reached 0.4387 million units, with a 1% cumulative increase in manufacturers' wholesale sales; From January to September 2024, the domestic retail quantity reached 0.4237 million units, with a 1% cumulative increase in retail sales.

The high-growth stage of the MPV market has changed to a low-growth trend. The performance of Tantec and Trumpchi's MPVC is very strong, while the advantage of Japanese MPVs is rapidly declining, and the GL8 is also in an adjustment period.

This article is from the WeChat official account "Cui Dongshu", edited by Zhixun Finance: Liu Xuan.