As a dominant player in the ai chip field, nvidia has always been closely watched by the market.

Recently, Tianfeng International analyst Ming-Chi Kuo published two articles looking ahead at the order volume of nvidia's Blackwell GB200 chip.

Kuo estimates that the shipment volume of the Blackwell GB200 chip in the fourth quarter will be between 0.15 million-0.2 million units, with a significant growth of 200%-250% in the first quarter of next year to reach 0.5 million-0.55 million units.

Kuo also stated that the largest customer, Microsoft, will see a surge of 3-4 times in order volume in the fourth quarter, surpassing the sum of all other cloud computing service providers. Kuo recommends focusing on Blackwell's semiconductor supply chain and Microsoft’s GB200 supply chain.

Benefiting from the GB200, Wall Street is bullish on nvidia's prospects, with Goldman Sachs even exclaiming: Buying nvidia is "a once-in-a-generation opportunity."

Microsoft's demand is significantly higher than its peers.

In the article, Kuo Mingchi expects the capacity expansion of Blackwell chips to start in the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2024. Considering yield rate and testing efficiency, it is projected that the shipment volume in the fourth quarter of 2024 will be between 0.15 million-0.2 million units, and the shipment volume in the first quarter of 2025 will significantly increase by 200%-250%, reaching 0.5 million-0.55 million units.

The article points out that currently, Microsoft is the most active customer in procuring GB200. In addition to the originally planned NVL36 order of GB200 for testing in the fourth quarter of 2024, Microsoft recently plans to obtain customized GB200 NVL72 units before the mass production of the NVIDIA DGX GB200 NVL72 (also known as the reference design) starts in mid-2025.

microsoft's GB200 order quantity in the fourth quarter of 2024 has surged from the previous 300-500 cabinets (mainly NVL36) to approximately 1400-1500 cabinets, with around 70% being NVL72. Subsequent orders will mainly focus on NVL72.

Regardless of whether the production capacity of the sole assembler fujifilm holdings corporation unsponsored adr can meet microsoft's GB200 demand in the fourth quarter of 2024, microsoft has recently discussed capacity expansion for the fourth quarter of 2024 (approximately 1.5 to 2 times or more of the original capacity) with key component suppliers and is prepared to stock up in advance.

Kuo Mingchi also revealed that based on investigations into the two major GB200 assembly suppliers, Foxconn and Pegatron, Microsoft's GB200 orders currently seem to exceed the total orders of other cloud service providers.

microsoft plans to prioritize deploying GB200 in low-temperature datacenters such as those in washington state, usa, quebec city, canada, helsinki, finland, to proactively alleviate potential impacts due to inadequate optimization time of the cooling systems.

Orders from other cloud service providers, such as Amazon's 300-400 cabinet GB200 NVL36 orders in the fourth quarter of 2024, and Meta's focus on Ariel rather than Bianca architecture, have significantly lower order volumes compared to Microsoft.

This does not necessarily indicate a conservative attitude of other cloud computing service providers, but rather microsoft's current significant demand for GB200 exceeds other cloud computing service providers.

Focus on Microsoft GB200 supply chain.

In terms of investment, analyst Guo Mingchi believes that aside from Blackwell's semiconductor supply chain, such as taiwan semiconductor, Jingyuan Electronics and equipment suppliers, recently worth paying attention to is Microsoft GB200 supply chain, as its key components and assembly suppliers can benefit from strong demand and outperform a large number of shipments from other CSP supply chains.

Apart from nvidia, one of the most representative GB200 component stocks in the US stock market is Vertiv, whose stock price has recently hit a historic high, aligning with the above investment logic.

Guo Mingchi predicts that the performance realization of Microsoft GB200 key components will be earlier than the exclusive assembly plant Hon Hai, because regardless of whether the assembly can meet Microsoft's demand in the short term, the key components will still ship first.

"A once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for a generation."

This week, Nvidia's stock price continued to rise, hitting another all-time high of $140.89 per share, with a latest total market value of $3.39 trillion, accumulating a year-to-date increase of 178.75%.

Despite the significant increase in Nvidia's stock price, due to its very fast revenue growth, the valuation is not high, and its latest AI chip Blackwell GB200 has huge potential. Wall Street and the majority of the market are bullish on its future prospects.

BofA analysts Vivek Arya, Duksan Jang, and others believe that buying Nvidia is "a once-in-a-generation opportunity," as Nvidia's valuation remains attractive, with its 2025 PEG ratio (PE / year-on-year EPS compound growth rate) at only 0.6 times, far below the average of 1.9 times for other companies in the "Magnificent 7" of US tech stocks.

Bank of America expects Nvidia's EPS for the fiscal years 2025-2026 to continue rising by 13%-20% and has raised Nvidia's target price to $190; by 2027, Nvidia's EPS will increase to over 5 times the original, reaching $5.67, at which point the PE ratio will decrease to a more moderate 24 times.

Goldman Sachs also points out that the launch and capacity ramp-up of Blackwell are not only drivers of near and medium-term revenue growth, but also a force to expand Nvidia's competitive advantage. By the first quarter of next year, this chip will contribute revenue of billions of dollars, with further growth expected from April next year and beyond.

Goldman Sachs believes that Nvidia is currently reasonably priced, with its valuation close to the median PE ratio of the past three years, and compared to its peers, its historical valuation is relatively low.