旺盛需求叠加双反退税，公司Q3 业绩创历史新高24 年三季度半钢胎需求依然旺盛，据USITC 数据，美国24 年7-8 月美国半钢进口2848 万条，同比降1.4%，环比增3.1%；全钢7-8 月美国进口912 万条，同比增14.3%，环比降8.1%。公司Q3 单季度半钢销量约807 万条，同比增4.3%，环比增10.1%；全钢实现销量约19 万条，同比降19.1%，环比增21.2%，同比下降我们预计系美国对泰国全钢进行双反影响。24 年10 月10 日，美国商务部作出泰国卡客车轮胎反倾销终裁，除普利司通外泰国轮胎工厂税率为12.33%，终裁落地预计后续全钢订单有望逐步恢复。公司Q3 轮胎均价约270 元/条，同比降2.4%，环比增1.3%，预计系产品结构影响。据百川盈孚，24Q3 合成胶、天然胶、炭黑、钢丝、帘子布均价同比分别变化+30.3%、+20.6%、-5.6%、-12.1%、+2.9%，环比分别变化+8.4%、+5.5%、-3.7%、-8.4%、-1.6%，虽然Q3 原材料成本有所上行，但得益于公司泰国半钢双反退税以及优秀的成本管控（24 年前三季度原材料预付款项同比增约108.6%） ，24Q3 毛利率为39.52%， 同比增11.99pct，环比增4.25pct；净利率为29.07%，同比增11.52pct，环比增0.31pct，净利率环比增幅较低预计系汇兑损失导致财务费用增加所致。Report guide
The company released its 2024 three-quarter report. The first three quarters achieved revenue of 6.34 billion yuan, an increase of 10.42% year on year; net profit to mother was 1.726 billion yuan, up 73.72% year on year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 1.718 billion yuan, up 79.43% year on year. Among them, Q3 achieved revenue of 2.23 billion yuan in a single quarter, up 1.13% year on year and 11.82% month on month; net profit to mother of 0.648 billion yuan, up 67.48% year on year and 13.04% month on month; net profit without return to mother of 0.659 billion yuan, up 76.12% year on year and 17.22% month on month.
Key points of investment
Strong demand was compounded by double tax rebates. The company's Q3 performance reached a record high in the third quarter of '24. Demand for semi-steel tires was still strong. According to USITC data, the US imported 28.48 million bars in July-August '24, down 1.4% year on year, up 3.1% month on month; all steel imported 9.12 million bars from July to August, up 14.3% year on year and down 8.1% month on month. The company sold about 8.07 million bars of semi-steel in a single quarter in Q3, up 4.3% year on year and 10.1% month on month; all steel achieved sales of about 0.19 million bars, down 19.1% year on year and 21.2% month on month. We expect the US to have a double negative impact on all steel in Thailand. On October 10, '24, the US Department of Commerce issued a final anti-dumping ruling on Thai truck and bus tires. With the exception of Bridgestone, the Thai tire factory tax rate is 12.33%. Following the implementation of the final ruling, it is expected that subsequent all-steel orders will gradually resume. The average price of the company's Q3 tires was about 270 yuan/piece, down 2.4% year on year and up 1.3% month on month. This is expected to affect the product structure. According to Baichuan Yingfu, the average price of 24Q3 synthetic rubber, natural rubber, carbon black, steel wire, and curtain cloth changed +30.3%, +20.6%, -12.1%, and +2.9%, respectively. The gross margin for 24Q3 changed +8.4%, +5.5%, -3.7%, -8.4%, and -1.6%, respectively. Although the cost of raw materials increased in Q3, it was thanks to the company's Thai Half Steel double anti-tax rebates and excellent cost control (advance payment of raw materials increased by about 108.6% year on year in the first three quarters of 24), 24Q3 gross margin was 39.5% Same The year-on-month increase was 11.99 pct, and the month-on-month increase was 4.25pct; the net interest rate was 29.07%, up 11.52pct year on year, and 0.31 pct month-on-month. The lower increase in net interest rate is expected to be due to an increase in financial expenses due to exchange losses.
Morocco officially starts production to ensure the company's future growth
According to Tyrepress, Morikirin's Morocco plant was officially put into operation on September 30, '24. It took less than a year from the start of construction to the formal commissioning. The Moroccan factory is designed to have a production capacity of 12 million high-performance passenger car tires. The production capacity is expected to reach 6-8 million in 25 years, ensuring the company's 25-year production capacity increase. The release of new production capacity at the company's overseas bases is expected to further drive the company's performance and global competitiveness.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Demand is strong, Morocco has officially started production, and is optimistic about the company's performance growth. The company's net profit for 24-26 is 2.277 billion yuan, 2.409 billion yuan, and 2.827 billion yuan. The current price corresponds to PE of 11.47, 10.84, and 9.24 times, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Raw materials and shipping costs fluctuate greatly, demand is poor, new production capacity falls short of expectations, and there is a risk of trade friction.
