Tianfeng International analyst Guo Mingchi recently released industry chain order information for nvidia's Blackwell GB200 chip, pointing out that microsoft is currently the world's largest GB200 customer, with Q4 orders increasing by 3-4 times, exceeding the total orders of all other cloud computing service providers.

Conclusion

1. Microsoft's demand for GB200 exceeds the total order volume of other cloud service providers, with a significant increase in orders in the fourth quarter of 2024 by 3 to 4 times.
2. Microsoft's GB200 key component suppliers plan to start large-scale production and shipment in the fourth quarter of 2024, which will promote its supply chain performance earlier than other cloud service providers.
3. Revenue recognition for key component suppliers will be earlier than for assembly suppliers, as key components will be shipped regardless of whether assembly suppliers can meet microsoft's demand in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Industry research and updates

1. The production capacity expansion of the Blackwell chip is expected to start in the early fourth quarter of 2024. Considering the yield rate and test efficiency, the shipment volume in the fourth quarter of 2024 is expected to be between 0.15 million and 0.2 million pieces. It is expected that the shipment volume in the first quarter of 2025 will increase significantly by 200% to 250%, reaching 0.5 million to 0.55 million pieces.
2. Currently, microsoft is the most active customer purchasing GB200. In addition to the NVL36 order scheduled for testing in the fourth quarter of 2024, microsoft recently plans to obtain customized GB200 NVL72 units before large-scale production of the nvidia DGX GB200 NVL72 (also known as reference design) begins in the mid-second quarter of 2025.
3. microsoft's GB200 order quantity in the fourth quarter of 2024 has surged from the previous 300-500 cabinets (mainly NVL36) to approximately 1400-1500 cabinets, with around 70% being NVL72. Subsequent orders will mainly focus on NVL72.
4. Regardless of whether the production capacity of the sole assembler fujifilm holdings corporation unsponsored adr can meet microsoft's GB200 demand in the fourth quarter of 2024, microsoft has recently discussed capacity expansion for the fourth quarter of 2024 (approximately 1.5 to 2 times or more of the original capacity) with key component suppliers and is prepared to stock up in advance.
5. Based on the investigation of the two main GB200 assembly suppliers, fujifilm holdings corporation unsponsored adr and quanta, microsoft's GB200 orders currently appear to exceed the total orders of other cloud computing service providers.
6. microsoft plans to prioritize deploying GB200 in low-temperature datacenters such as those in washington state, usa, quebec city, canada, helsinki, finland, to proactively alleviate potential impacts due to inadequate optimization time of the cooling systems.
7. The orders of other cloud computing service providers, such as amazon's 300-400 cabinet GB200 NVL36 orders in the fourth quarter of 2024, as well as Meta's focus on Ariel rather than Bianca architecture, have significantly lower order quantities compared to microsoft. This does not necessarily indicate a conservative approach by other cloud computing service providers, but rather microsoft's current demand for GB200 is significantly higher than other cloud computing service providers.