The following is a comment written by a FISCO social reporter for individual investors, Mr. Yuusuke Yuge (Blog: Profitable Stock Information" Nekodanna's Stock Never Ceilings "). At FISCO, we strive to work with individuals who are actively disseminating information to deliver a diverse range of information to investors.

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※Written on October 14, 2024 at 2:00 PM

The Ishiba administration has announced the dissolution of the House of Representatives, and movements to explore the direction of the stock market are becoming prominent. Contrary to most expectations, the movement towards a depreciation of the yen may be due to speculation that the Ishiba administration will indeed end in a short-lived manner.

I am Yugi Yuge, who writes a stock and cat blog called 'Profitable Stock Information "Nekodanna's Stock Never Ceilings"'.

During the week of October 7th to 11th, the USD/JPY exchange rate trended towards a depreciation of the yen. This was in response to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the US Department of Labor on October 10th, which exceeded market expectations, leading to a rise in long-term US interest rates. As a result, the USD/JPY exchange rate has been trending towards a depreciation of the yen.

This depreciation of the yen may also include speculation that the Ishiba administration, which has colored the post-war history with a mood of the fastest dissolution general election since taking office, is likely to end in a short-lived manner. Considering the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike speculations along with the policies of the Ishiba administration, it seems that the long-term factors are all in favor of a stronger yen. If the situation were to change drastically, it would be necessary to rethink investment strategies once again.

With the recent depreciation of the yen and the prosperous semiconductor market, the Nikkei Average seems to be recovering from the decline caused by the Ishiba shock. Ahead of the election on October 27th, there is also excitement in the congratulatory market. It would be great if this trend continues, but in the medium to long term, there may be a stronger intention in the Ishiba administration to shift towards a stronger yen through interest rate hikes. A depreciation of the yen to the extent that it swings in favor of a higher exchange rate may serve as an excuse for implementing interest rate hikes due to reasons such as the vague notion of "national decline".

Whether such financial estimates become reality or turn out to be groundless should be clear after the dissolution general election. There is a possibility that the Liberal Democratic Party will suffer a major defeat and the mood to remove Shinjiro may increase. It is also not zero that the Liberal Democratic Party will no longer be the ruling party….

Now, if the trend of a strong yen continues, I have selected some stocks that I want to keep an eye on this time. Yutori <5892>, which operates its own EC site "YZ Store", was favorably received for achieving 0.1 million downloads of its EC app. It is also a good factor that Itochu Corporation <8001> has signed a sales agency agreement with the "MARITHE + FRANCOIS GIRBAUD" brand.

Aoki HD <3549>, which had a strong earnings report on October 3rd, slowly raised its downside and updated its year-to-date high. The implementation of share buybacks is also well-received, and it is noteworthy that dividends are increasing year by year. There may also be speculation related to inbound.

Olympus <7733>, the world's leading endoscope company, saw buying inflow as reported in the Nikkei newspaper on October 8th that CFO Ryuya Izumi stated, "Including M&A, we want to invest funds exceeding 100 billion yen by the end of March 2026." The earnings report on November 8th is also worth checking.

GENDA <9166>, which operates amusement facilities under the "GiGO" brand, has maintained an upward trend in the chart since the 'Ueda Shock'. It is expected to achieve its highest profit ever in the fiscal year ending January 25, and if the yen strengthens due to exchange rate fluctuations, there may be renewed interest. I will continue to monitor the possibility of implementing dividends in the future.

Next is Sumitomo Forestry <1911>, a major player in the residence industry. The company, which has been forming an upward trend throughout the year, is under observation for the possibility of not only benefiting from a strong yen but also implementing further dividend increases. If the U.S. single-family housing market continues to perform well, it may further expand its performance, but it all depends on the numbers. The earnings report on October 31st is something to watch.

Lastly, Dawn <2303>, which has recently attracted attention, has updated its year-to-date high rapidly due to the favorable reception of its earnings report (1Q) on October 10th. It is involved in systems and apps for private disaster prevention and crime prevention, and is one of the popular themes under speculation in relation to the appointment of Prime Minister Ishiba, the potential popularity of the theme 'disaster prevention related'. It would be interesting if it could surpass the cloud of the Ichimoku equilibrium chart (monthly) with this momentum… in the near future, it would be desirable to exceed the high of 2469 yen in March last year.

Well, the story has become a bit long, but on my blog, I introduce "individual stocks and theme stocks that are currently strong". Please take a look if you have time. We look forward to welcoming you with our beloved cat, "Al".

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Author Name: Yuugentei Tamaki Blog Name: The Cat Master's Stocks Know No Limits

Blog Name: The Cat Master's Stocks Know No Limits