随着11月5日美国总统选举日的临近，美股市场上的“特朗普交易”和“哈里斯交易”再次成为焦点。所谓的“特朗普交易”和“哈里斯交易”，指的是投资者根据总统候选人的当前胜选概率以及他们当选后可能推行的不同经济政策和政治行动来进行投资决策。

例如，7月15日，特朗普遭遇了历史性的枪击事件，这一事件引发了市场上的“特朗普交易”热潮。美债收益率曲线变得更加陡峭，比特币价格大幅上涨，美股市场整体走高，银行、医疗保健和石油行业的股价尤为突出， $Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$ 当日的股价涨幅达到了31.37%。

再比如，9月10日，特朗普与哈里斯进行了首场电视辩论，公众普遍认为哈里斯在辩论中占据了优势。这导致“哈里斯交易”受到追捧，当天以光伏和新能源为代表的“哈里斯概念股”表现强劲。

无论是“特朗普交易”还是“哈里斯交易”，它们的本质都是市场对未来执政方针可能带来的经济影响的预期反应，与候选人的政策纲领密切相关。

尽管两位总统候选人在政策上存在分歧，许多投资者将“哈里斯交易”视为“特朗普交易”的对立面，但两党之间在某些政策上仍有共识，基础设施建设就是其中之一。这种共识为市场提供了一个相对稳定的投资方向，无论选举结果如何，基础设施投资都可能成为推动经济增长的关键因素。

基础设施投资是跨党派合作的坚实基石

In the coming years, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and the CHIPS Act will inject billions of dollars into the American infrastructure value chain. The IIJA provides $1.2 trillion in funding for infrastructure projects from 2021 to 2026, with about $492 billion still unallocated.

In addition, private expenditures related to these legislations are bringing potential opportunities to American infrastructure companies. As of mid-March 2024, private companies have announced $676 billion in manufacturing investments during the Biden administration.

With the approaching November presidential and legislative elections, there is uncertainty about the sustainability of these policies. However, infrastructure usually receives broad bipartisan support and has been a focus of both Democratic and Republican governments and legislators. At the federal level, the Biden administration's efforts have been bolstered by the IIJA, also known as the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, which garnered strong bipartisan support in 2021. During the Trump administration, both parties also showed interest in strengthening federal support for infrastructure, although no major infrastructure spending plans were ultimately passed.

Given the relatively strong bipartisan support for the IIJA, it is expected that regardless of the election outcome, the law is unlikely to be overturned. Bipartisan support at the state and local levels, as well as private expenditures, may continue to create opportunities. During Tetra Tech and Jacobs Solutions' first quarter 2024 earnings conference call, management pointed out the design opportunities brought by the IIJA and state financing plans.

The CHIPS Act: a key strategy for the United States to secure global leadership in artificial intelligence.

Against the backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions, the strategic importance of maintaining leadership in artificial intelligence becomes particularly prominent. Semiconductors, as essential hardware for AI technology, the government's efforts to promote semiconductor research and manufacturing are likely to continue to receive bipartisan support. The CHIPS Act represents a joint effort by both parties to uphold American technological advantages and enhance national security interests. Since its enactment in August 2022, the CHIPS Act has not been targeted for repeal by any legislation efforts, so regardless of the outcome of the 2024 election cycle, the Act is unlikely to be a target for repeal.

Looking ahead, this means that infrastructure companies can continue to benefit from the expanding landscape of the U.S. semiconductor manufacturing industry. The Biden administration has already begun allocating funds from the $39 billion CHIPS Act for semiconductor manufacturing incentive measures. An additional $24 billion is earmarked for tax credits for chip production, along with billions for semiconductor research and workforce development. As of the end of February 2024, the Department of Commerce has received over 600 company expressions of interest in CHIPS Act financing opportunities.

Private commitments to the semiconductor and electronics manufacturing industry total $244 billion, representing 36% of the $676 billion in private manufacturing investments announced since 2021. Even prior to the enactment of the CHIPS Act, leading global contract chip manufacturer Taiwan Semiconductor and the largest U.S. chip manufacturer Intel were in negotiations with the Trump administration to expand their manufacturing operations in the U.S.

In May 2020, Taiwan Semiconductor announced plans to build its first U.S. manufacturing plant in Arizona. The factory is expected to begin initial production in 2025. Following the passage of the CHIPS Act, Taiwan Semiconductor announced plans for a second manufacturing plant, which may start production in 2027 or 2028. Overall, the company's investment in these two factories exceeds $40 billion.

IRA may become a focus of Republican attention, covering core provisions such as electric vehicle tax credits.

Unlike the IIJA and CHIPS Act, the IRA passed along party lines during the 2022 reconciliation process. Given that the IRA represents the largest investment in climate change mitigation in U.S. government history, opposition from conservative lawmakers may persist in some form. In just the first year of the legislation, Republican lawmakers made 31 attempts to repeal the plan or specific IRA provisions, all unsuccessfully. Former President Donald Trump has stated that if elected, repealing the IRA would be his top priority.

However, in reality, even if the Republicans sweep the White House, House of Representatives, and Senate, a complete repeal would still be extremely challenging. So far, the IRA incentives have greatly benefited Republican-led states, promoting job growth and private investment.

Since the passage of the IRA, around 60% of private investments in electric vehicles (EVs), batteries, clean tech manufacturing, and renewable energy projects have flowed to states won by Trump in 2020. Some estimates suggest that up to 66% of the IRA-related funds have gone to Republican-leaning states. Additionally, Republicans hold 8 out of the top 10 congressional districts with the most IRA-related investments announced. Hence, there may be enough legislators, businesses, and voters who would oppose a complete repeal.

However, the Republican goal may be targeting specific provisions, especially tax credits for eligible new and old electric vehicles and electric vehicle charging systems. Tax credits for electric vehicles have always been a core criticism of IRA in Trump's campaign speeches. In the short term, such efforts may cause electric vehicles to be priced higher than similar internal combustion engine vehicles; however, with the advancement of battery technology and economies of scale at play, it is expected that the prices of electric vehicles will further decrease. In addition, canceling tax credits may accelerate the natural evolution of the market towards the popularization of electric vehicles, driving manufacturers to intensify their research and development efforts to lower costs and provide more competitive prices.

The increasingly intense competition in the electric vehicle market and the ongoing price wars have put pressure on auto manufacturers, forcing them to find ways to make electric vehicles more attractive to a wider consumer base. In addition, despite purchase subsidies ending in 2022, electric vehicle sales in China grew by 29% year-on-year in 2023, indicating that even without purchase incentives, electric vehicle sales could achieve strong growth.

Therefore, infrastructure companies may see ongoing opportunities from the largest transformation in the transportation industry in more than a century. For example, the Arizona Department of Transportation has chosen infrastructure consulting firm AECOM to develop a plan for deploying electric vehicle charging stations statewide. Equipment suppliers such as Eaton and Hubbell provide electric vehicle charging equipment.

Clean energy tax credits are one of the largest components of the IRA budget and may face attempts to repeal or limit their impact through executive actions. However, solar investment tax credits (ITC) and other clean energy tax credits have previously received support from both the Democratic and Republican parties, with some even proposed by bipartisan groups of lawmakers. During the Trump administration, the ITC was renewed annually, even during periods when Republicans held the majority in Congress. The IRA extends the ITC from 2022 to 2032, eliminating the uncertainty of annual renewals.

Under the Republican government's leadership, other provisions focusing on energy efficiency or hindering oil & gas (O&G) activities may become targets for attack, while provisions supporting critical minerals and battery production may be deemed safe due to their strategic importance for national security. Policy shifts that support broader O&G operations and continued support for mining activities could bring different opportunities for infrastructure companies.

How to layout the infrastructure in the USA?

This election cycle has indeed brought uncertainty, but at present, regardless of the composition of the US government, many major trends and tailwinds that are driving infrastructure development seem likely to continue. Companies across the entire US infrastructure value chain have just begun to benefit from significant inflows of public and private investment into the industry, and this momentum will persist. From roads, airports, and bridges to manufacturing facilities, broadband internet, and renewable energy, the modernization of US infrastructure provides investors with numerous different long-term investment opportunities.

To achieve long-term stability in investment portfolios, investors may consider looking into Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in the infrastructure sector. Here are three infrastructure ETFs worth paying attention to:

1. iShares US Infrastructure ETF

Launched by Blackrock, IFRA, managed by BlackRock Fund Advisors, focuses on industries in the US public markets such as materials, industrial, capital goods, architecture, engineering, machinery, transportation, railroads, and utilities. The fund uses representative sampling techniques to track the performance of the NYSE FactSet US Infrastructure Index, investing in growth and value stocks of varying market caps.

As of 2024, IFRA's Assets Under Management (AUM) total $2.76 billion, with major holdings including $Vistra Energy (VST.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Constellation Energy (CEG.US)$ and $NRG Energy (NRG.US)$.

It is understood that IFRA distributes a dividend of $0.82 per year, with a dividend yield of 1.75% at the current price, and an average dividend yield of 1.88% over the past four years. In the past year, IFRA has risen by 30.3%, and by 17.6% in the past nine months, closing at $48.08 on the previous trading day.

Global X US Infrastructure Development ETF

PAVE, launched by Global X Funds and managed by Global X Management Company LLC, invests in the architecture engineering, infrastructure materials, composite materials, industrial transportation, and heavy construction equipment industries in the US public market. The fund uses full replication technology, tracking the performance of the Indxx US Infrastructure Development Index, investing in growth and value stocks of different market caps.

It is understood that PAVE's asset management scale is $8.41 million, with the largest holdings including $Trane Technologies (TT.US)$and$United Rentals (URI.US)$and $Eaton (ETN.US)$PAVE pays an annual dividend of $0.24, resulting in a current dividend yield of 0.58%. The four-year average dividend yield is also 0.58%.

In the past year, PAVE has risen by 36.63%, in the past nine months it has risen by 22.5%, and closed at $42.38 on the previous trading day.

3. Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund

XLI, launched by State Street Global Advisors and managed by SSGA Funds Management, Inc., focuses on stocks of Industrial Sector companies in the US public markets. The fund aims to invest in a diversified mix of growth and value stocks by using full replication technology to track the performance of the Industrial Select Sector Index.

XLI has assets under management of $20.23 billion, holding 80 stocks, with top holdings including $GE Aerospace (GE.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Caterpillar (CAT.US)$ and $RTX Corp (RTX.US)$XLI pays an annual dividend of $1.84, with a current yield of 1.36% at the current price, and an average dividend yield of 1.50% over the past four years.

In the past 9 months, XLI has risen by 21.8%, in the past year it has risen by 35.5%, and the closing price on the previous trading day was $138.85.

Editor/Lambor