周二，Although the semiconductor industry as a whole is struggling, ASML is at the forefront, but Wall Street analysts pointed out that this decline may have been excessive, and the future long-term growth prospects are still bright.
Due to the company lowering its outlook for 2025, the stock price of asml holding (ASML.O) plummeted by 16% earlier this week.
ASML's financial report 'exploding thunder' put pressure on the entire semiconductor industry, but the stock price of this Dutch chip equipment giant dropped the most. Although the risk of 'bottom fishing' is enormous, Wall Street analysts believe that this drop may have been overdone.
On Tuesday, ASML's stock price plummeted by 16% due to the company lowering its outlook for 2025, attributed to slow recovery in certain areas of the chip market. ASML is a chip manufacturing equipment company, mainly providing tools to taiwan semiconductor and other chip manufacturers.
On Thursday, ASML's stock in Amsterdam dipped slightly by 0.2% to 632.90 euros, while its American depositary receipts remained stable at $683.43.
The drop in stock price reflects the shock of ASML lowering its performance guidance to the market. ASML stated that total net sales in 2025 are expected to range between 30 billion and 35 billion euros, potentially significantly below the market's expectation of 35.8 billion euros.
The downward adjustment has raised questions in the market about recent changes. Possible explanations include a slowdown in demand from Samsung Electronics and intel for ASML's most advanced extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) machines, as well as a significant reduction in orders from china.
"We believe intel (INTC.O) is a key factor leading to the downward revision of ASML's expectations, as intel recently delayed the start of production at its Magdeburg chip plant, which could lead to more delays and issues in the future. In September, Samsung apologized to investors for its poor technical performance, so we believe both companies may be more cautious in their expectations for 2025." Morningstar analyst Javier Coreano wrote in a research report.
However, Corio Nero stated that despite short-term uncertainties, ASML remains a "good buying opportunity" with a positive long-term outlook. He has lowered the reasonable valuation of ASML's Amsterdam-listed stocks from 900 euros to 850 euros.
In addition to Samsung and Intel, ASML faces a bigger issue with China. Since 2019, ASML has been banned from exporting its most advanced EUV technology to China. However, in the face of the possibility of stricter export restrictions from the US and the Netherlands, Chinese companies have been hoarding older models of Deep Ultraviolet Lithography (DUV) machines.
ASML seems prepared for the end of this hoarding behavior. ASML expects that by 2025, Chinese revenue will account for approximately 20% of the total group revenue, whereas in recent quarters, the percentage had been over 40%. Wall Street analysts believe that this new expectation indicates that ASML has assumed there will be more sales and service restrictions in the future.
Analyst Raymond James analyst Srini Pajure wrote, "Despite disappointment in performance, we do not see any structural issues and believe the risk-return is attractive, considering orders close to a trough, the monopolistic position in EUV, long-term demand for generative AI, and the current valuation."
Pazhuri has lowered the target price of ASML's American Depositary Receipts from $1100 to $900, but still maintains a "strong buy" rating.
