China's third-quarter GDP grew 4.6% year-on-year, higher than the consensus forecast of 4.5% and 4.7% in the previous quarter, said Zhao Yiu-ting, global market strategist for the Jingshun Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan). On a seasonally adjusted basis, quarterly growth rose from 0.5% in the second quarter to 0.9%.
Overall, GDP growth was 4.8% year-to-date, slightly below the Chinese government's 5.0% growth target, but taking into account the recently announced stimulus measures, Zhao Yaoting believes that growth in the fourth quarter is expected to accelerate, pushing year-over-year growth above 5%.
The economy has clearly regained momentum since September. According to Zhao Yaoting, the most noteworthy data is domestic consumption in terms of retail sales, which grew by 3.2% year-on-year, higher than expected by 2.5% and a significant increase from 2.1% in the previous month. Year-on-year growth in industrial production was also strong, rising from 4.5% in the previous month to 5.4%, exceeding expectations. In September, real estate investment was stable and fixed asset investment growth remained unchanged at 3.4% year-on-year. The measures announced at the recent Real Estate Market News Conference are expected to bring broader support to the market.
Heading into the final months of the year, Zhao Yao Ting will keep a close eye on fiscal stimulus measures this quarter and the coming year. He expects the Chinese economy to maintain an upward trend in the final months of the year, thanks to further fiscal stimulus measures, improved domestic consumption and a stable global macro environment.