Morgan Stanley expects that China Mobile (00941.HK) will announce its third-quarter financial results next Monday (21st). Based on challenges faced by the mainland in areas such as consumer and business aspects, brokerages estimate that revenue growth in telecommunications services will slow down, but profit performance remains solid. Based on the overall forecasts of three brokerages, China Mobile's net profit for the first three quarters of this year is expected to be between 110.9 billion and 110.977 billion yuan, compared to 105.506 billion yuan in the same period last year, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.1% to 5.2%. Overall, based on the forecasts of three brokerages, China Mobile's communication services revenue for the first three quarters of this year is expected to be between 676.9 billion and 679.109 billion yuan, compared to 664.557 billion yuan in the same period last year, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.9% to 2.2%.

Based on the overall forecasts of three brokerages, China Mobile's net profit for the third quarter of this year is expected to be between 30.7 billion and 30.776 billion yuan, compared to 29.333 billion yuan in the same period last year, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.7% to 4.9%. Overall, based on the forecasts of three brokerages, China Mobile's communication services revenue for the third quarter of this year is expected to be between 213.3 billion and 215.52 billion yuan, compared to 212.4 billion yuan in the same period last year, representing a year-on-year increase of 0.4% to 1.5%. Investors will focus on the latest operational and dividend guidance from China Mobile management.

[Stable Profit Expectations Focus on New Guidance]

JPMorgan predicts that China Mobile's service revenue for the third quarter will increase by 0.5% to 213.3 billion yuan, with mobile service revenue declining by 2% to 144.2 billion yuan, total revenue increasing by 0.9% year-on-year to 247.1 billion yuan, net profit increasing by 4.7% to 30.7 billion yuan, and EBITDA increasing by 0.5% to 85.5 billion yuan. The bank expects that the third-quarter revenue of the three largest state-owned telecommunications companies will still be weak, with profit growth moderating due to the impact of weak macroeconomic conditions on consumer and enterprise business. JPMorgan forecasts that China Mobile's net profit for the first three quarters of this year will increase by 5.1% to 110.9 billion yuan, with EBITDA in the first three quarters recording 267.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, and estimated revenue increasing by 2.4%.

Morgan Stanley predicts that China Mobile's service revenue for the third quarter will increase by 1.5% to 215.5 billion yuan, total revenue will increase by 2% to 249.7 billion yuan, net profit will increase by 4.9% to 30.8 billion yuan, EBITDA will decrease by 1.8% to 83.5 billion yuan, and the service EBITDA ratio will contract by 1.3 percentage points to 38.8%.

UBS Group predicts that China Mobile's service revenue for the third quarter will increase by 1.2% to 214.8 billion yuan, net profit will increase by 4.9% to 30.8 billion yuan, and EBITDA will remain unchanged at 85 billion yuan.

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Based on the overall forecasts of three brokerages, China Mobile's net profit for the first three quarters of this year is expected to be between 110.9 billion and 110.977 billion yuan, compared to 105.506 billion yuan in the same period last year, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.1% to 5.2%.

Brokerage│Net profit for the first three quarters of this year (in RMB hundred million)│Year-on-year change

UBS Group│110.977 billion yuan│+5.2%

Morgan Stanley│110.962 billion yuan│+5.2%

JPMorgan│110.9 billion yuan│+5.1%

China Mobile's net profit for the first three quarters of last year was calculated at 105.506 billion yuan in RMB.

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According to the forecasts of three brokerages, China Mobile's communication services revenue for the first three quarters of this year is expected to be between 676.9 billion yuan and 679.109 billion yuan in RMB, compared to last year's 664.557 billion yuan in RMB, an annual increase of 1.9% to 2.2%.

Brokerage│Service revenue for the first three quarters of this year (in hundred million yuan)│Year-on-year change

morgan stanley│679.109 billion yuan│+2.2%

ubs group│678.433 billion yuan│+2.1%

jpmorgan│676.9 billion yuan│+1.9%

China Mobile's communications services revenue in the first three quarters of the previous year amounted to 664.557 billion yuan calculated in RMB.

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According to the predictions of three brokerages, China Mobile's net profit in the third quarter of this year is expected to range from 30.7 billion to 30.776 billion yuan, compared to 29.333 billion yuan in the same period last year, an increase of 4.7% to 4.9% annually.

Brokerage│Estimated net profit for the third quarter of 2024 (RMB)│Year-on-year change

ubs group│30.776 billion yuan│+4.9%

Morgan Stanley │ 30.761 billion yuan │ +4.9%

JPMorgan │ 30.7 billion yuan │ +4.7%

China Mobile's net profit in the third quarter of last year was calculated at 29.333 billion yuan.

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According to the forecasts of three brokerages, China Mobile's communication service revenue in the third quarter of this year is expected to range between 213.3 billion yuan and 215.52 billion yuan, compared to last year’s 212.4 billion yuan, an increase of 0.4% to 1.5% year-on-year.

Brokerages │ Service income in the third quarter of 2024 (RMB) │ Annual change rate

Morgan Stanley │ 215.52 billion yuan │ +1.5%

UBS Group │ 214.844 billion yuan │ +1.2%

JPMorgan Chase │ 213.3 billion yuan │ +0.4%

China Mobile's service revenue in the third quarter of last year was calculated at 212.4 billion yuan RMB