标普全球上述预测是基于如下假设条件：阿布扎比和阿联酋中央银行提供的150 亿美元贷款以及阿联酋国家发展银行的贷款、以及双边和银团债务工具都将被延期，①S&P Global predicts that the Dubai government will achieve a fiscal surplus from 2024 to 2027, without the need for additional debt financing; ②By the end of this year, Dubai's total general government debt will decrease to $50 billion, with the debt-to-GDP ratio dropping from 70% in 2021 to 34%.
Financial Association News, October 18th (Edited by Li Lin/Intern Editor Xu Chengbo) According to S&P Global's forecast, the Dubai government is expected to achieve a fiscal surplus from 2024 to 2027, without the need to issue additional debt for deficit financing.
The institution pointed out that by the end of this year, Dubai's total general government debt will decrease to $50 billion, with the debt-to-GDP ratio dropping from 70% in 2021 to 34%.
S&P Global's above prediction is based on the following assumptions: the $15 billion loan provided by Abu Dhabi and the UAE Central Bank, loans from the UAE National Development Bank, and the extension of bilateral and syndicated debt instruments.
However, this forecast does not include debt financing required for the $35 billion expansion project of Al Maktoum Airport, nor does it include debt financing required for the $8.2 billion Tasreef drainage pipe network project approved by the government after widespread local flooding in April.
Following the listing of Dubai state-owned enterprises Empower, Parkin, and Dubai Taxi Company, S&P predicts that the Dubai government may acquire more liquidity through further listing of state-owned assets in the future.
To date, Dubai has been relatively unaffected by geopolitical tensions. The institution predicts that after a 3.3% growth in 2023, Dubai's actual GDP average growth rate from 2024 to 2027 will be close to 3%.
In the real estate market, while Dubai's property transaction volume increased by 45% in the second quarter of 2024 according to Dubai Land Department data, prices increased by 37%. However, S&P Global predicts that real estate prices will stabilize from 2025 to 2026. A large number of pre-sold properties are expected to be delivered by then, which could lead to oversupply, with market absorption capacity depending on local population growth and demand trends.
In terms of business, the reputation of the United Arab Emirates as a safe haven and its low tax regime make Dubai attractive to global investors. S&P Global also pointed out that this can be seen from Dubai's relatively low office vacancy rate over the years. So far, telecommuting has not affected the office vacancy rate, and office rents continue to rise.
