物贸一体协同发展，扩产增效、链条延伸有望驱动业绩持续释放。公司基于相对完善的综合物流服务，通过向化工品分销服务延伸，现已构造起全场景物贸一体化服务体系。作为盈利主力的仓配业务，23 年前期新仓集中投产，产能利用率仍处爬坡期，盈利潜能亟待释放。同时伴随公司夯实现有主业，精细化拓宽新业务领域，在服务链条延伸附加值提升，业务交叉引流带动货量增长多方共振下有望驱动业绩持续释放。Core views:
The company released its 2024 three-quarter report. In 24Q3, the company completed operating income of 3.561 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.90%, achieved net profit of 0.179 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.88%, and achieved net profit deducted from non-mother of 0.162 billion yuan, an increase of 15.61% year-on-year. The performance was in line with expectations.
Shipping prices remained relatively strong in the third quarter, and domestic and foreign chemical stocks were still low. According to the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, 24Q3 SCFI averaged 3082 points, an average increase of 12.67% over the same period last year and an average increase of 17.26% over 24Q2. The shipping freight side maintained a relatively prosperous level in the third quarter. The recovery in the freight side was beneficial to the operation of the company's global freight forwarding and global mobile business. Looking backwards, the shipping price boom still needs to be continuously tracked and gradually judged based on the supply and demand situation. Looking at the chemical market, chemical stocks at home and abroad are still relatively low. In the context of the continuous introduction of domestic policies, chemical demand is expected to pick up, the operating rate of various chemicals is expected to increase, demand for replenishment will gradually increase, the company's trade volume is expected to increase simultaneously, and the capacity utilization rate of supporting warehouses will continue to rise, which is conducive to the continued implementation of fundamentals and highlights the company's procyclical nature.
The integrated and collaborative development of goods and trade is expected to drive continued release of performance by expanding production and efficiency, and extending the chain. Based on relatively complete integrated logistics services, the company has now built a full-scenario integrated goods and trade service system through extension to chemical distribution services. As the main profitable warehousing business, new warehouses were put into operation centrally in the early 23 years. The capacity utilization rate is still climbing, and profit potential needs to be unleashed urgently. At the same time, as the company consolidates its main business and refines and broadens new business areas, it is expected to drive continued release of performance as the service chain extends and increases added value, and cross-drainage of business drives volume growth.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. Since freight rates were relatively high in the first three quarters and chemical demand is expected to pick up in the future, we expect the company's 24-26 EPS to be 3.84, 4.77, and 5.52 yuan/share, respectively, giving the company 20 times PE valuation in 24 years, corresponding to a reasonable value of 76.77 yuan/share, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning. The boom in the chemical industry fell short of expectations, mergers and acquisitions fell short of expectations, the operation of new mergers and acquisitions fell short of expectations, production safety risks, etc.
