24Q3 The company's orders are steady, moderate and positive. The company has strong production capacity, high human efficiency and high-quality customer structure, and is steadily promoting capacity expansion to improve capacity utilization, and profitability is expected to continue to improve. The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is expected to be $0.162 billion, $0.18 billion, and $0.201 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 15%, 12%, and 12%. The current market value corresponds to 24PE10X and 25PE9X. The company has strong growth certainty, maintains a high dividend strategy, and maintains a highly recommended rating.

Revenue has been growing steadily, and the share of sports categories has increased. 1) 24Q1-Q3: The company's revenue increased 5.1% to 1.16 billion US dollars, the manufacturing business increased 4.9% to 1.127 billion US dollars, sales in the manufacturing business increased 10.1% to 39.4 million dollars, and the average sales price decreased by 4.7% to 28.6 million dollars. 2) 24Q3: The company's revenue increased 0.6% to 0.39 billion US dollars, the manufacturing business increased by 0.2% to 0.378 billion US dollars, sales in the manufacturing business increased 5.7% to 12.9 million yuan, and the average sales price decreased by 4.9% to 29.3 US dollars. The decline in average selling prices is mainly due to an increase in the share of sports categories with lower average sales prices and a decrease in the price of raw materials.

Production capacity has been steadily expanded, and capacity utilization has steadily increased. The Bangladesh plant will be put into operation by the end of the year, and production capacity at the new Indonesian plant will continue to be released, laying the foundation for accepting incremental orders in 25-26. Currently, the capacity utilization rate of Nike's special factories is steadily increasing, and the capacity utilization rate of non-Nike factories has reached full capacity, driving up profitability.

Regular dividends+additional repurchases/special dividends, steady returns are considerable. In addition to maintaining a dividend rate of 70% at the normal level, the company promises to return up to 60 million dollars of additional cash per year to shareholders over the next three years (2024-2026) through a combination of share repurchases and special dividends.

Profit forecasting and investment advice. With strong production capacity, high efficiency and high-quality products and customer structure, the company is promoting the orderly expansion of production capacity and steadily increasing capacity utilization. Currently, the racetrack boom is steady. The company is expected to maintain stable order growth while improving profitability. Considering the company's continuous optimization of customer and order structures, we have slightly raised our profit growth expectations. The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is expected to be $1.54 billion, $1.6 billion, and $1.67 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 3%, 4%, and 4%. Net profit was $0.162 billion, $0.18 billion, and $0.201 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 15%, 12%, and 12%. The current market value corresponds to 24PE10X and 25PE9X, maintaining a highly recommended rating.

Risk warning: Exchange rate fluctuations affect profit risk, risk of new plant expansion in Vietnam and Indonesia falling short of expectations, and risk of companies being pressured to take orders due to poor overseas demand.