投资建议：公 司 Q3 业绩高增，盈利能力持续提升，客户优化效果得以显现。考虑到公司高利润率客户占比提升对公司盈利带来的正向拉动较快，我们上调公司盈利预测，预计2024~2026 年EPS 为1.34/1.73/2.14 元（原值为1.22/1.61/2.00 元，上调+10%/+8%/+7%）。Introduction to this report:
The company's Q3 performance increased, profitability continued to improve, and customer optimization results were shown. Increase your holdings.
Key points of investment:
Investment advice: The company's Q3 performance increased, profitability continued to improve, and customer optimization results were shown. Considering the rapid positive impact of the company's high profit margin customer share on the company's profit, we raised the company's profit forecast. From 2024 to 2026, EPS is expected to be 1.34/1.73/2.14 yuan (the original value was 1.22/1.61/2.00 yuan, an increase of +10%/+8%/+7%).
Referring to comparable companies in the same industry, the company was valued 21 times in 2024, and the target price was raised to 28.46 yuan.
Incident: The company is expected to achieve net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 0.175 billion yuan to 0.193 billion yuan, an increase of 40%-55% over the previous year; of these, Q3 achieved net profit of 0.78 to 0.096 billion yuan, +32% to +64% over the same period last year. Net profit of 0.161 billion yuan to 0.178 billion yuan after deducting non-recurring profit and loss in the first three quarters of 2024 was 0.161 billion yuan to 0.178 billion yuan, an increase of 40% to 55% over the previous year; of these, Q3 achieved net profit deducted from non-return mother of 0.69 to 0.086 billion yuan, +24% to +56% year-on-year.
High increase in Q3 performance and improved profitability: In line with the company's procurement commitment announcement at the beginning of the year, we expect the company's Q3 revenue growth rate to be about 50% to 60%. The Q3 net interest rate calculated from this calculation is about 15% to 16%, an increase of about 2% to 3% over Q2. We judge that the increase in the company's profit margin mainly comes from the optimization of the customer structure. Air compressor orders from new customers mainly focus on medium- and high-priced products, and the volume of new orders has effectively driven the increase in the company's overall net interest rate.
Order growth is expected to continue, and the expansion of new regions and categories can be expected: the company's Q3 performance and order growth is relatively rapid, mainly due to the fact that developed countries and regions such as Europe and the United States will usher in a traditional large-scale procurement season, early preparation by merchants, and the development of new markets outside of North America. At the same time, the recovery in the US real estate industry will drive an increase in consumption of cleaning equipment and pneumatic tools. Looking ahead to subsequent growth momentum, the company has two main driving factors: 1) the company currently accounts for more than 90% of revenue in the US market, which will accelerate expansion outside of the US, and there is still plenty of room for growth in European and other markets; 2) The company currently mainly focuses on air compressors and wet and dry vacuum cleaners. In addition to these two main categories, there are also newly expanded categories such as garden tools and nursing robots, which are expected to increase new growth momentum along with the release of new categories.
Risk warning: Geographical conflict affects exports, risk of exchange rate fluctuations
