HBM, as a key storage technology for high-performance computing and AI applications, has seen a significant increase in demand in recent years. Investors are starting to worry that there may be an oversupply of HBM in 2025, exacerbating the risk of the periodic downturn in DRAM.

In response to these concerns, Goldman Sachs pointed out in its latest research report released on the 16th that these worries may be premature. The report emphasized that major global cloud computing companies continue to increase investments in storage devices, making an oversupply situation unlikely. Additionally, the development of advanced packaging technologies (such as CoWoS), as well as the expected tight HBM supply from major customers, will drive the demand for HBM.

At the same time, suppliers' inventories are relatively healthy, and the DRAM market is expected to undergo a mid-cycle inventory adjustment in the coming quarters.

HBM market in short supply, DRAM cycle storage dispute

Investors' focus continues to be on the HBM market, with growing concerns that oversupply may start as early as next year.

Goldman Sachs stated that this scenario is unlikely, primarily because large-scale enterprises are continuing to spend heavily in the global cloud computing sector, and CoWoS production capacity is growing strongly.

The report also points out that major HBM suppliers are facing challenges in improving production yield, meaning that it will be difficult to rapidly increase supply in the short term.

Therefore, Goldman Sachs believes that HBM will be in short supply next year, especially with SK Hynix's leading position in the AI memory market, the supply and demand will remain tight until 2025, continuing to be the preferred choice for investors.

Compared to the HBM market, the outlook for the DRAM market appears more complex. Some investors believe that with rising inventory levels and increased supply from other countries, DRAM may enter a longer downturn cycle.

However, Goldman Sachs holds a cautiously optimistic view on this. They believe that despite high customer inventory levels, supplier inventories are relatively healthy, and the market is likely to undergo a mid-cycle inventory adjustment in the coming quarters.

Furthermore, strong demand for HBM may also have a positive impact on the DRAM market. Therefore, although short-term market fluctuations are inevitable, Goldman Sachs believes that the DRAM market will not experience a significant downturn.

Samsung Electronics: Undervaluation attracts investors

As one of the giants in the global storage chip industry, Samsung Electronics' stock performance has been widely watched in recent years.

The report points out that although Samsung Electronics' stock price has declined recently, its current valuation level is close to historical lows in terms of PE ratio, attracting the interest of many investors.

Most investors believe that Samsung Electronics' stock has limited downside potential, however, there is a lack of noticeable catalysts for short-term stock price increases.

Investors are particularly focused on the upcoming release of Samsung Electronics' third-quarter financial report, hoping it will reveal more signals about the future market trends.

SK hynix: Strong Performance in the HBM Market

Compared to Samsung Electronics, SK hynix's performance is even more favored by investors. The report points out that SK hynix, with its leading position in the HBM market, continues to attract positive attention from investors.

Most investors believe that the HBM market will remain in a supply-demand imbalance situation until 2025, which brings strong growth expectations for SK hynix.

The report also mentions that SK hynix's future growth potential also comes from its planned construction of the M15X wafer fab, expected to be completed next year, which will further enhance its HBM production capacity.

Editor/ping