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US stock market outlook: Retail sales in September exceeded expectations, with the three major futures indices edging up slightly; strong performance! taiwan semiconductor surged more than 9% in pre-market trading, expected to open above $200 to achieve a

Futu News · 20:37

热点要闻

周四盘前，美股三大股指期货全线上涨

美国9月零售销售环比增长0.4%，预期增长0.3%，前值增长0.1%。

美国至10月12日当周初请失业金人数为24.1万人，预期为26万人，前值由25.8万人修正为26万人。

明星科技股盘前普涨，台积电涨超9%，英伟达涨超3%

费城半导体盘前普涨，AMD、博通、高通涨超2%

黄金股盘前普涨，现货黄金突破前高，续创历史新高

截至发稿，$哈莫尼黄金 (HMY.US)$、$DRDGOLD (DRD.US)$涨超5%，$金田 (GFI.US)$涨超4%。

台积电盘前涨超8%，站上200美元创历史新高，Q3业绩及Q4指引均超预期

$台积电 (TSM.US)$盘前涨超8%，站上200美元，今晚开盘有望创出历史新高。台积电Q3营收约新台币7596.9亿元，同比增长39.0%，环比增加12.8%；税后纯益约新台币3252.6亿元，超过市场预估的2993亿元新台币，同比增长54.2%，环比增加31.2%。另外，台积电预计第四季度销售额261亿-269亿美元，超过预估的249.4亿美元；预计毛利率57%至59%，亦超过预估的54.7%。

Meta多个团队又传来裁员消息，扎克伯格的“效率年”还在继续

$Meta Platforms (META.US)$在周三进行了多个业务团队的调整，并称将重新分配公司内部的资源。Meta发言人在一封电子邮件声明中强调，Meta的一些团队正在进行调整，以确保资源与其长期战略目标和策略保持一致。这包括将一些团队转移至不同地点，将部分员工分配至不同岗位。当有职位不得不被取消时，Meta也在为员工寻找其他机会。

减肥药又现“奇效”？研究：GLP-1能改善阿片类药物成瘾问题

一项最新研究表明，$诺和诺德 (NVO.US)$Ozempic及类似GLP-1药品，能够减轻患者对阿片类药物和酒精的滥用，这进一步证明了GLP-1药物在治疗肥胖和糖尿病之外具有广泛的潜力。这项研究周四（10月17日）发表在的《瘾（Addiction）》这一杂志上。研究将进一步了解GLP-1日益增长的潜在用途，并试图解决患者对阿片类药物成瘾问题的困扰。

Gevo盘前大涨超40%，获美能源部14.6亿美元融资

$Gevo Inc (GEVO.US)$盘前继续大涨超40%。消息上，该公司从美国能源部贷款项目办公室获得14.6亿美元的有条件贷款担保，用于其在南科达州的Net-Zero 1项目。

$Nixxy (NIXX.US)$盘前飙升超200%，公司披露新的收购策略

$Nixxy (NIXX.US)$盘前飙升超200%，该公司披露了一项为期三年的策略，以收购价值10亿美元的成熟、稳定且盈利业务，并利用技术提升其运营能力。该公司表示，将专注于收购净营业收入为1000万至1亿美元，且毛利润率至少达到40％的企业。

美国铝业盘前涨超6%，Q3较上年同期扭亏为盈且EBITDA超预期

$美国铝业公司 (AA.US)$盘前涨超6%。消息面上，美国铝业第三季度营收29亿美元，同比增长12%，市场预期29.5亿美元；净利润9000万美元，上年同期亏损1.68亿美元；调整后每股收益0.57美元，市场预期0.33美元；调整后EBITDA为4.55亿美元，市场预期3.9亿美元。此外，公司与Ignis EQT磋商取得进展，有望达成一份战略协议。

Expedia盘前涨超7%，消息称Uber正探索收购该公司的可能性

旅游预订网站$Expedia (EXPE.US)$盘前涨超7%。消息面上，据英国《金融时报》，Uber正在探索收购Expedia的可能性。Uber的兴趣还处于早期阶段，有可能不会达成交易。

Lithium Americas盘前续涨超10%，将与通用汽车组建合资企业

加拿大矿业企业$Lithium Americas (LAC.US)$盘前续涨超10%，昨日该股大涨超23%刷新阶段新高。消息上，通用汽车和lithium americas同意建立一个合资企业，该合资企业将使这家汽车制造商注入62500万美元，用于开发和运营一座锂矿，这是电动车的关键原材料来源。

丹纳赫盘前涨近4%，小摩升其目标价至310美元

$丹纳赫 (DHR.US)$盘前涨近4%。摩根大通分析师Rachel Vatnsdal维持丹纳赫“买入”评级，并将目标价从305美元上调至310美元。另外，加皇资本市场分析师Conor McNamara维持丹纳赫“买入”评级，维持目标价333美元。

Elevance Health盘前跌超11%，Q3净利润降22%，营收超预期达451.1亿美元

$Elevance Health (ELV.US)$盘前跌超11%，第三季度净利润为10.1亿美元，合每股4.36美元，相较去年同期的13亿美元，即每股5.45美元有所下降。尽管调整后的每股收益为8.37美元，低于分析师预期的9.66美元，但公司的营业收入从428.5亿美元增长到了451.1亿美元，超出了FactSet分析师预计的434.7亿美元。

Lucid Group盘前大跌超18%，Q3预期亏损扩大及交付量减少

美国电动汽车公司$Lucid Group (LCID.US)$盘前大幅下跌超18%。消息上，该公司预计第三季度亏损为7,6500万至7,9000万美元，而去年同期报告的亏损为6,3090万美元。在上一季度，该公司报告亏损为6,4340万美元。该公司还表示，第三季度生产和交付的汽车数量少于第二季度。

联合大陆航空昨夜收涨超12%，一call单日壕赚4倍

$联合大陆航空 (UAL.US)$期权成交量大增，昨夜期权成交34.50万张。其中，联合大陆航空昨夜大涨12.44%，多张周五到期的call单大涨3倍，最赚的一张call单是今年11月1日到期，行权价为73美元的call，价格上涨了400%。

全球宏观

高盛：预测美联储还将连续六次降息25个基点

高盛周三表示，预计美联储将在2024年11月至2025年6月期间每次会议连续降息25个基点，最终利率区间为3.25-3.5%。上个月，美联储将隔夜利率下调了50个基点，理由是对通胀将继续回落至2%的年度目标的信心增强。隔夜利率目前在4.75%-5.00%之间，这一利率指导着银行间支付的利率，并影响着消费者的利率。

鲍威尔遭质疑：过分强调“数据依赖”将引发市场波动

在过去几年里，美联储主席鲍威尔时常把“依赖数据”、“逐次会议做出决定”等措辞挂在嘴边。然而，这种看似稳妥的官僚做派正在遭受经济学家们的批评。最近三个月的就业数据更是说明了这件事情的不寻常：7、8月的就业数据明显疲软，因此在鲍威尔的率领下，美联储以超规格的50基点降息拉开了本轮降息周期。

然而，9月的就业增速反弹，此前的疲软又似乎消失了。交易员们撤回继续大幅降息的押注，一些经济学家开始批评美联储过于恐慌，过快采取行动。这正是困住鲍威尔、经济学家和全球市场的问题：大家的目光正被牢牢束缚在每隔6周的美联储决策周期里，持续轮回。

传奇投资人德鲁肯米勒：银行与加密货币齐涨，市场“非常确信”特朗普将获胜

为索罗斯管理基金逾十年的知名对冲基金经理斯坦·德鲁肯米勒周三在接受采访时表示，在过去的12天里，市场似乎“非常确信特朗普会赢”，并称“你可以在银行股及加密货币市场中看到这一点”。德鲁肯米勒表示，在下个月的美国总统大选之前，市场正消化特朗普获胜的预期。

德银：若共和党“横扫”美国大选，美元将获重大提振

德意志银行表示，如果共和党在即将到来的美国大选中大获全胜，即在特朗普当选总统、共和党控制国会的情况下，美元将获得重大提振。以George Saravelos为首的德银策略师表示，这样的选举结果可能会推高债券收益率，因为共和党承诺将以减税的形式推出关税和财政刺激措施。

IEA、EIA、OPEC都在告诉你一件事：明年油市前景挺悲观

眼下众多石油市场的专业人士，普遍对明年原油市场的前景持有悲观看法。这种悲观情绪源于一种信念，即2025年的石油供应量将进一步超过全球需求量，OPEC联盟以外的供应增长将在这其中发挥主要作用。在本月发布的最新月报中，三大石油机构——IEA(国际能源署)、EIA(美国能源信息署)、OPEC(欧佩克)都缩减了对明年原油需求量的预估，从而强化了这一看法。

贝莱德：关注日本、中国股市投资机会，因估值相对吸引

全球最大的资产管理公司贝莱德称，关注日本、中国及英国等国的股市投资机会，因这些市场目前的估值相对吸引：将“适度增持”中国股市，认为中国有即将推出重大财政刺激政策的迹象，但仍然关注中国的长期结构性挑战。仍看好日本股市，因日本宏观前景正在改善，企业改革正在提升企业盈利及股东回报。

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒

（以下均为北京时间）

21:15 美国9月工业产出月率

22:00 美国8月商业库存月率、美国10月NAHB房产市场指数、IMF总裁格奥尔基耶娃在IMF和世界银行年会前发表讲话

23:00 美国至10月11日当周EIA原油库存、2025年FOMC票委古尔斯比在一场年度会议上致欢迎词

编辑/ping

Hot news

Pre-market on Thursday, the three major US equity index futures are all up.

In September, US retail sales rose by 0.4% on a month-on-month basis, exceeding expectations of 0.3%, with the previous value increasing by 0.1%.

In the usa, the initial claims for unemployment benefits for the week ending October 12 totaled 0.241 million, lower than the expected 0.26 million. The previous value was revised from 0.258 million to 0.26 million.

Growth tech stocks are generally up in pre-market trading, with taiwan semiconductor rising over 9% and nvidia rising over 3%.

Semiconductor companies in Philadelphia are mostly up in pre-market trading, with AMD, Broadcom, and Qualcomm all rising over 2%.

Golden industrial concept stocks are generally up in pre-market trading, with spot gold breaking previous highs and continuing to reach historical highs.

As of press time,$Harmony Gold Mining (HMY.US)$,$DRDGOLD (DRD.US)$rose more than 5%.$Gold Fields (GFI.US)$rose more than 4%.

Taiwan Semiconductor rose more than 8% in pre-market trading, reaching over $200 to hit a new all-time high, with Q3 performance and Q4 guidance both exceeding expectations.

$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$盘前涨超8%，站上200美元，今晚开盘有望创出历史新高。台积电Q3营收约新台币759.69 billion元，同比增长39.0%，环比增加12.8%；税后纯益约新台币325.26 billion元，超过市场预估的299.3 billion元新台币，同比增长54.2%，环比增加31.2%。另外，台积电预计第四季度销售额26.1 billion-26.9 billion美元，超过预估的24.94 billion美元；预计毛利率57%至59%，亦超过预估的54.7%。

Multiple teams at Meta have once again reported layoff news, Mark Zuckerberg's 'Year of Efficiency' continues.

Weight loss drugs are showing "amazing" effects again? Study: GLP-1 can improve opioid addiction issues.

一项最新研究表明，$Novo-Nordisk A/S (NVO.US)$Ozempic及类似GLP-1药品，能够减轻患者对阿片类药物和酒精的滥用，这进一步证明了GLP-1药物在治疗肥胖和糖尿病之外具有广泛的潜力。这项研究周四（10月17日）发表在的《瘾（Addiction）》这一杂志上。研究将进一步了解GLP-1日益增长的潜在用途，并试图解决患者对阿片类药物成瘾问题的困扰。

Gevo soared more than 40% pre-market, securing a $1.46 billion financing from the US Department of Energy.

$Gevo Inc (GEVO.US)$Continuing to surge more than 40% pre-market. In terms of news, the company received a $1.46 billion conditional loan guarantee from the Loan Programs Office of the US Department of Energy for its Net-Zero 1 project in South Dakota.

$Nixxy (NIXX.US)$Surging over 200% pre-market, the company revealed a new acquisition strategy.

$Nixxy (NIXX.US)$Surging over 200% pre-market, the company unveiled a three-year strategy to acquire mature, stable, and profitable businesses worth $1 billion, and enhance its operational capabilities with technology. The company stated that it will focus on acquiring enterprises with net revenues ranging from $10 million to $1 billion, and a gross margin of at least 40%.

Alcoa soared over 6% pre-market, turning a loss into profit compared to Q3 of the previous year and exceeding EBITDA expectations.

$Alcoa (AA.US)$Pre-market trading up more than 6%. On the news front, Alcoa's third-quarter revenue was $2.9 billion, an increase of 12% year-on-year, market expectation was $2.95 billion; net income was $90 million, compared to a loss of $0.168 billion in the same period last year; adjusted earnings per share were $0.57, market expectation was $0.33; adjusted EBITDA was $0.455 billion, market expectation was $0.39 billion. In addition, the company has made progress in negotiations with Ignis EQT and is expected to reach a strategic agreement.

Expedia surged more than 7% in pre-market trading, with news that Uber is exploring the possibility of acquiring the company.

Travel booking website$Expedia (EXPE.US)$Pre-market trading up more than 7%. According to the Financial Times in the United Kingdom, Uber is exploring the possibility of acquiring Expedia. Uber's interest is still in the early stages and a deal may not materialize.

Lithium Americas continued to rise by over 10% in pre-market trading and will form a joint venture with General Motors.

Canadian mining company$Lithium Americas (LAC.US)$In pre-market trading, the stock continued to rise by over 10%, following a significant 23% surge yesterday setting a new high. In news, General Motors and lithium americas have agreed to establish a joint venture, with the automotive manufacturer injecting $625 million to develop and operate a lithium mine, a key source of raw materials for electric vehicles.

Danaher rose nearly 4% in pre-market trading, with JPMorgan raising its target price to $310.

$Danaher (DHR.US)$Rose nearly 4% in pre-market trading. JPMorgan analyst Rachel Vatnsdal maintains a 'buy' rating on Danaher and raises the target price from $305 to $310. Additionally, Conor McNamara of Guggenheim Securities maintains a 'buy' rating on Danaher and keeps the target price at $333.

Elevance Health fell over 11% in pre-market trading, with Q3 net income down 22% and revenue exceeding expectations reaching $45.11 billion.

$Elevance Health (ELV.US)$Dropped over 11% in pre-market trading, with third-quarter net income at $1.01 billion, or $4.36 per share, a decrease from the $1.3 billion, or $5.45 per share, in the same period last year. Despite the adjusted earnings per share at $8.37, below analysts' expectations of $9.66, the company's revenue increased from $42.85 billion to $45.11 billion, surpassing FactSet analysts' estimate of $43.47 billion.

Lucid Group fell more than 18% pre-market, as Q3 expectations for losses widen and deliveries decrease.

An American electric vehicle company.$Lucid Group (LCID.US)$Pre-market plummeted over 18%. News-wise, the company expects a loss of 765 million to 790 million US dollars in the third quarter, compared to a loss of 630.9 million US dollars reported in the same period last year. In the previous quarter, the company reported a loss of 643.4 million US dollars. The company also stated that the number of cars produced and delivered in the third quarter was less than that in the second quarter.

United Airlines surged over 12% last night, with a single call option making 4 times the profit in a day.

$United Airlines (UAL.US)$Options trading volume saw a significant increase, with 0.345 million options contracts traded last night. Among them, United Airlines surged 12.44% last night, with multiple call options expiring on Friday soaring 3 times, the most profitable call option expiring on November 1 this year with a strike price of $73, saw a 400% price increase.

Global macro

Goldman Sachs: Predicting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points for six consecutive times.

Goldman Sachs said on Wednesday that it expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at each meeting from November 2024 to June 2025, with a final interest rate range of 3.25-3.5%. Last month, the Federal Reserve cut the overnight rate by 50 basis points, citing increased confidence that inflation will continue to decline to its annual target of 2%. The overnight rate is currently between 4.75% and 5.00%, guiding interbank payment rates and affecting consumer rates.

Powell Faces Criticism: Excessive emphasis on 'data dependence' will trigger market volatility.

In recent years, Federal Reserve Chair Powell has often emphasized phrases such as 'data dependence' and 'making decisions at each meeting'. However, this seemingly cautious bureaucratic style is facing criticism from economists. The past three months of employment data have illustrated this unusual situation: the job data for July and August was notably weak. Therefore, under Powell's leadership, the Federal Reserve initiated an oversized 50 basis point rate cut to start this rate-cutting cycle.

However, the pace of job growth rebounded in September, seemingly erasing the previous weakness. Traders have withdrawn bets on further significant rate cuts, and some economists have begun criticizing the Federal Reserve for being overly panicked and taking action too quickly. This is the problem that has trapped Powell, economists, and global markets: everyone's focus is firmly set on the recurring cycle of the Fed's decision every six weeks.

Legendary investor Druckenmiller: Banks and cryptocurrencies rise together, the market is 'very confident' that Trump will win.

Stan Druckenmiller, a well-known hedge fund manager who worked for Soros Fund Management for over a decade, stated in an interview on Wednesday that in the past 12 days, the market seemed to be "very confident that Trump would win," noting that "you can see this in bank stocks and the cryptocurrency market." Druckenmiller mentioned that the market is currently digesting the expectation of a Trump victory before the upcoming U.S. presidential election next month.

Deutsche Bank: If the Republican Party "sweeps" the U.S. election, the dollar will receive a significant boost.

Deutsche Bank stated that if the Republican Party achieves a sweeping victory in the upcoming U.S. election, with Trump being elected president and the Republicans controlling Congress, the dollar will receive a significant boost. Led by George Saravelos, Deutsche Bank strategists indicated that such election results could push up bond yields, as the Republicans promise to introduce tariff reductions and fiscal stimulus measures in the form of tax cuts.

IEA, EIA, OPEC are all telling you one thing: the outlook for the oil market next year is quite pessimistic.

Currently, many professionals in the oil market generally hold a pessimistic view of the outlook for the crude oil market next year. This pessimism stems from a belief that the oil supply in 2025 will further exceed global demand, with supply growth outside the OPEC alliance playing a major role. In their latest monthly report released this month, the three major oil institutions - IEA (International Energy Agency), EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration), OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) have all reduced their estimates of next year's crude oil demand, thereby reinforcing this view.

BlackRock: Focus on investment opportunities in the Japanese and Chinese stock markets as valuations are relatively attractive.

BlackRock, the world's largest asset management company, mentioned that attention should be paid to investment opportunities in the stock markets of Japan, China, and the UK, as the current valuations in these markets are relatively attractive: they will "modestly increase holdings" in the Chinese stock market, believing that there are signs of significant fiscal stimulus policies to be introduced in China, but they still pay attention to China's long-term structural challenges. They remain bullish on the Japanese stock market as macroeconomic prospects in Japan are improving and corporate reforms are enhancing corporate profitability and shareholder returns.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

21:15 US industrial production rate for September

22:00 US August business inventory rate, US October NAHB housing market index, IMF Managing Director Georgian speech before the IMF and World Bank annual meeting

23:00 US EIA crude oil inventory as of October 11th, 2025 FOMC voting member Goolsbee delivers welcome remarks at an annual conference

Editor/ping

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