1. Pre-market trading in the US stock market on October 17th (Thursday), the three major US stock index futures all rose. As of the time of writing, Dow futures rose by 0.17%, S&P 500 index futures rose by 0.41%, and Nasdaq futures rose by 0.80%.

2. As of the time of writing, the Germany DAX index rose by 0.60%, UK FTSE 100 index rose by 0.40%, France CAC40 index rose by 1.18%, and Europe Stoxx 50 index rose by 0.78%.

3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil rose by 0.24%, to $70.56 per barrel. Brent crude oil rose by 0.26%, to $74.41 per barrel.

Market News

September retail sales data will be released tonight. Stronger-than-expected economic data helped drive discussions of 'no rate cut.' Investors will see another indicator of the US economic condition, the September retail sales report to be released at 20:30 Beijing time tonight. Economists expect a 0.2% increase in September retail sales from the previous month; August saw a 0.1% increase, breaking the downward trend predicted by economists.

Legendary investor Druckenmiller: Banks and cryptos rise in tandem, market 'very confident' Trump will win. Stanley Druckenmiller, a well-known hedge fund manager who worked for Soros Fund Management for over a decade, said in an interview on Wednesday that in the past 12 days, the market seems 'very confident that Trump will win,' and he stated, 'You can see this in the banking stocks and the cryptocurrency market.' Druckenmiller indicated that the market is digesting the expectation of a Trump victory before the next month's US presidential election. However, he will not vote for Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris. Druckenmiller called Trump a 'blowhard' and implied that he lacks the dignity to serve as president, while he mentioned that Harris as president would be detrimental to business. Druckenmiller, who has not donated to either candidate, said, 'When I go to the polls, I may write someone's name.'

Deutsche Bank: Significant boost for the US dollar if the Republican Party 'sweeps' the US election. Deutsche Bank stated that if the Republican Party achieves a resounding victory in the upcoming US election, meaning Trump is elected president and the Republicans control Congress, the US dollar will receive a significant boost. George Saravelos, head strategist at Deutsche Bank, mentioned that such election results could push up bond yields because the Republicans promise to introduce tariffs and fiscal stimulus measures in the form of tax cuts. In this scenario, the strategist recommends buying the US dollar against the euro, Mexican peso, and South Korean won. On the contrary, if the Democratic Party presidential candidate Harris wins the US presidency and the Democrats gain control of Congress, Deutsche Bank strategists suggest buying emerging market currencies and selling the US dollar against the Japanese yen, expecting the Bank of Japan to continue tightening monetary policy.

Goldman Sachs: Predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points continuously for six times. Goldman Sachs said on Wednesday that it expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at each meeting from November 2024 to June 2025, with the final rate range being 3.25-3.5%. Last month, the Fed lowered the overnight rate by 50 basis points, citing increased confidence in inflation falling to the annual target of 2%. The overnight rate is currently between 4.75%-5.00%, guiding the interbank rates and affecting consumer rates. According to CME FedWatch Tool, the market currently expects a 92.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next Fed meeting, with only a 7.9% chance of rates remaining unchanged. Goldman Sachs also stated that it expects the European Central Bank to cut rates by 25 basis points at Thursday's monetary policy meeting, and indicated that it expects to continue cutting rates by 25 basis points each time until the policy rate reaches 2% in June 2025.

Individual stock news

Blackstone Group (BX.US) reported a 1162% increase in Q3 earnings per share, with total revenue reaching $3.66 billion. Blackstone's financial performance significantly improved in the third quarter, with earnings per share of $1.01 under non-GAAP, a significant increase from $0.08 in the same period last year. This growth was mainly driven by the strong performance of its lending division, resulting in a 5.5% year-on-year increase in distributable earnings, reaching $1.28 billion. In terms of revenue, Blackstone Group achieved total revenue of $3.66 billion, a 57.8% increase from the same period last year, adding $1.3 billion. Earnings per share calculated under GAAP were $1.02. Additionally, the company's total Assets Under Management (AUM) reached $1107.6 billion, with fee-earning AUM at $820.5 billion, and perpetual capital AUM at $434.7 billion. In terms of fund flows, Blackstone Group had net inflows of $40.5 billion this quarter.

Elevance Health (ELV.US) reported a 22% decrease in Q3 net income, with revenue exceeding expectations at $45.11 billion. Elevance Health's Q3 net income was $1.01 billion, or $4.36 per share, a decrease from $1.3 billion, or $5.45 per share, in the same period last year. Although adjusted earnings per share were $8.37, below analysts' expected $9.66, the company's revenue grew from $42.85 billion to $45.11 billion, surpassing FactSet analysts' estimate of $43.47 billion. Revenue increased by $1.8 billion compared to the same period last year, reaching $13.8 billion, driven by the growth in Carelon services and business revenue from CarelonRx products. Looking ahead, Elevance revised its financial outlook for 2024, now expecting adjusted earnings per share of around $33, lower than the previous estimate of $37.20 per share.

Earnings Preview: Netflix (NFLX.US) Q3 earnings report imminent, market expects a 33% year-on-year increase in net income. Netflix will announce its third-quarter financial performance on Thursday, October 17, Eastern Time. Analysts estimate Netflix's Q3 revenue to be $9.77 billion, a 14% increase year-on-year; projected net income is $2.23 billion, a 33% increase year-on-year; diluted earnings per share are expected to be $5.11, up from $3.73 in the same period last year. Analysts also expect Netflix's global user base to reach 0.286 billion by the end of the third quarter, an increase of about 4 million from the previous quarter, and over 30 million compared to the same period last year. Netflix previously stated that it will stop reporting user data starting in 2025, focusing instead on financial indicators.

Alcoa (AA.US) saw a year-on-year turnaround to profit in Q3, with EPS significantly exceeding expectations. Alcoa's third-quarter performance showed that the company generated $2.9 billion in Q3 revenue, a 12% increase year-on-year, slightly below the market's expected $2.95 billion; net profit was $90 million, a turnaround from the $0.168 billion loss in the same period last year; adjusted earnings per share were $0.57, beating the market's expected $0.33. In the third quarter, alumina production decreased by 4% to 2.44 million tons due to the shutdown of the Kwinana smelter. Aluminum production increased by 3% to 0.559 million tons, mainly due to progress in restarting the Alumar smelter. Third-party alumina shipments decreased by 9% due to reduced trading volume, while aluminum shipments were down by 6%. Adjusted EBITDA was $0.455 billion, an increase of $0.13 billion from the previous quarter, mainly driven by higher alumina prices and lower raw material costs.

Slow business recovery, Nokia (NOK.US) Q3 sales below expectations. Nokia reported net sales of €4.326 billion in Q3, an 8% decrease compared to analysts' expectation of €4.73 billion. Adjusted operating profit was €0.454 billion, a 9% increase year-on-year; adjusted earnings per share were €0.06, compared to €0.05 in the same period last year. Adjusted gross margin was 45.7%, up 490 basis points from the previous year. Adjusted operating margin was 10.5%, up 160 basis points from the previous year and better than the analysts' expected 9.5%. Looking ahead, Nokia still forecasts that adjusted operating profit for 2024 will be between €2.3 billion and €2.9 billion.

The chip industry receives a 'booster shot'! Strong demand for AI driving force, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US) Q3 profit increases by 54%. Due to strong sales of Nvidia (NVDA.US) AI chips offsetting the sluggishness in the mobile chip sector, Taiwan Semiconductor's third-quarter profit surged by 54%. The major chip manufacturer for both Nvidia and Apple (AAPL.US) achieved a third-quarter net profit of 325.3 billion New Taiwan Dollars (about 10.1 billion USD), exceeding analysts' average expectation of 299.3 billion New **** Dollars. Revenue growth also increased by 39% during the same period. Since the beginning of the year, Taiwan Semiconductor's stock price has soared over 70%, surpassing many of Asia's largest tech companies, reflecting high expectations from the market for its AI business. The company also raised its revenue expectations for 2024 in July, emphasizing the continuous anticipated spending from companies like Microsoft (MSFT.US) and Amazon (AMZN.US) on AI infrastructure. The steady adoption of AI is also expected to drive sales of iPhones and other electronic products.

After being named for 'frequent security vulnerability issues', Intel (INTC.US) has issued a statement. The 'Intel China' WeChat official account released a recent update, emphasizing that Intel has taken note of the related media reports and stated that as a multinational company operating in China for nearly 40 years, Intel strictly adheres to the applicable laws and regulations of the business location. Intel China stated that they always prioritize product safety and quality, actively collaborate with customers and the industry, and ensure the safety and quality of products. 'We will maintain communication with the relevant departments, clarify any doubts, and demonstrate our strong commitment to product safety and quality,' Intel China expressed through its WeChat official account.

Important economic data and events notice

At 20:30 Beijing time: US October Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, US September Retail Sales MoM (%), US initial jobless claims for the week ending October 12th (in tens of thousands).

At 21:15 Beijing time: US September Industrial Production MoM (%).

At 22:00 Beijing time: US August Business Inventories MoM (%), US October NAHB Housing Market Index.

At 23:00 Beijing time: US EIA Crude Oil Inventory Change for the week ending October 11th (in tens of thousands of barrels).

At 04:00 the next day Beijing time: US Foreign Net Purchase of Long-Term Securities in August (in billions of USD).

At 22:00 Beijing time, IMF Managing Director Georgieva delivered a speech before the IMF and World Bank annual meetings.

At 23:00 Beijing time, FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Guersby delivered welcoming remarks at an annual conference.

Performance forecast.

Friday morning: Netflix (NFLX.US)

Friday pre-market: Procter & Gamble (PG.US), American Express (AXP.US), Schlumberger (SLB.US)