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徐工机械(000425):申请续接200亿ABN降表内应收 关注需求复苏力度

Xugong Machinery (000425): Application for renewal of 20 billion ABN accounts receivable to focus on demand recovery

gtja ·  Oct 17

Introduction to this report:

As a leader in the domestic construction machinery industry, the company has completed mixed reform and gained new vitality, and overseas markets are expanding smoothly. As domestic and foreign construction machinery industry demand recovers in the second half of the year, the company is expected to benefit.

Key points of investment:

Investment advice: Domestic demand declined a lot in the first half of the year due to relatively weak real estate demand, and external demand reduced the company's 2024-2025 EPS by 0.53/0.67 yuan (originally 0.65/0.77 yuan) due to relatively weak demand in Europe and the US, and added 0.83 yuan to 2026 EPS. The target price was maintained at $8.22, and the increase in holdings rating was maintained.

Incident: The company issued an announcement to apply for the issuance of registration/storage quotas for asset securitization projects, continuing the registration quota which is about to expire. The registration amount is 20 billion ABN applied for in 2022, which is valid for 24 months and will expire in December 2024. The company plans to issue asset securitization projects totaling no more than 20 billion yuan, including 10 billion yuan of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Market Asset Support Special Program and 10 billion yuan of interbank market asset support notes. The asset securitization project will help the company improve its balance and liability structure, revitalize existing assets, improve asset turnover efficiency, achieve asset monetization through large-scale issuance of accounts receivable asset securitization, accelerate cash return, supplement operating capital flow, broaden low-cost financial channels with flexible terms, optimize the company's debt structure, reduce financing costs, and improve the efficiency of capital use.

Domestic sales of excavators exceeded expectations in September, and export sales were slightly lower than expected but were positive for two consecutive months. Domestic sales: Domestic sales of excavators in September were 7610 units/ +21.5%, exceeding previous CME expectations. Mainly due to the rapid growth of small excavation, large excavation maintained steady growth. Currently, sales of medium excavators are still weak, but frequent introduction of real estate policies is expected to boost real estate sales, which is expected to increase mid-excavation sales. Export sales:

Overseas market demand is steady. In September, export sales were 8,221 units/+2.5% /month-on-month, and corrected for 2 consecutive months. The low base combined with the Fed's interest rate cuts compounded the gradual end of general elections in many overseas places, which is expected to drive a continued correction in external demand in the second half of the year.

The mixed reform unleashed operational vitality and accelerated the international layout. The company's operating efficiency continued to improve after the mixed reform. 2024H1's ROE was 6.4%, which is higher than that of peer-listed companies. The company's global market share is 5.3%. 2024H1's overseas revenue is 27.7 billion yuan/ +4.8%, accounting for 44% /+3.4pct. The gross margin is 24.4%, 2.7 pct higher than the gross margin of domestic sales. The rapid increase in overseas revenue share is expected to drive an increase in gross profit margin and net interest rate. The company's product structure continues to be optimized, and revenue from high-end products increased by more than 10% year-on-year, accounting for more than 32%.

Risk warning: Domestic market demand recovery falls short of expectations, and overseas market expansion falls short of expectations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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