share_log

亚洲货币看空情绪升温 美联储降息预期减弱加剧美元强势

Bearish sentiment is rising in Asia mmf, weakening expectations of a Fed rate cut and exacerbating the strength of the US dollar.

Zhitong Finance ·  Oct 17 17:15

Due to the expected weakening of the Fed's rate cuts, the strengthening of the USD has made high-risk assets in Asia less attractive.

The Wisdom Financial APP noted that analysts are turning bearish on most Asian currencies, with bearish bets on the Indian Rupee at a one-year high, due to the expected weakening of the Fed's rate cuts and the strengthening of the USD, making high-risk assets in Asia less attractive.

A two-week survey of 11 analysts conducted on Thursday showed that short positions in the South Korean Won, Philippine Peso, and Indonesian Rupiah are at their highest levels since July 25.

Bullish bets on the Singapore Dollar, Malaysian Ringgit, and Thai Baht have also significantly decreased since early October.

Amid expectations of a significant reduction in Fed rate cuts and uncertainty in the US presidential election, the increased demand for the USD has weakened investor confidence in Asian currencies.

The USD index, which measures the USD against six major currencies, has risen by 3% since September 30. The index is currently at 103.57, a level last seen at the end of July.

In India, the Rupee fell below 84 Rupees per USD last week, a level that the Indian central bank has been defending for over two months, as recent surges in oil prices may increase the bill for net oil importers, while the outflow of foreign funds from the domestic stock market puts pressure on the local currency.

The survey results were released before the rate decisions of the central banks of Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia on Wednesday.

Thai banks and the Central Bank of the Philippines (BSP) have cut interest rates, while the Indonesian bank maintains the status quo.

Eugenia Victorino, Head of Asia Strategy at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken, stated: "Although the fundamentals suggest that rates should be lowered to a neutral level at present, the peso's depreciation should make the Philippine central bank cautious about maintaining a loose pace, moving even more slowly than the Federal Reserve."

In Thailand, despite government support for rate cuts, the Thai baht remains the second best-performing currency in Asia this year, with a nearly 3% increase year-to-date, second only to the Malaysian ringgit.

As Malaysia becomes the only net exporter of oil & gas among Asia's major emerging economies, oil price fluctuations have shaken investors' confidence in the ringgit.

A report states that the Biden administration is considering restricting the sale of advanced ai chips to certain countries.

The focus of the survey on Asia currency positions is on analysts and fund managers' views on current market positions of nine emerging market currencies in Asia, namely the Renminbi, Korean Won, Singapore Dollar, Indonesian Rupiah, Indian Rupee, Philippine Peso, Malaysian Ringgit, and Thai Baht.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment