该行调整对该三家电信商的全年业绩预测，相信三者将维持其派息指引，即中国移动派息比率今年起三年内由去年71%升至75%以上，中国电信派息比率今年起三年内由去年70%升至75%以上，以及中国联通改善派息率，该行预测中国联通派息比率由去年55%升至2026年60%。该行对三家电信商最新目标价，相等于中国移动，中国电信及中国联通股息率达6.2%、5.3%及6%。According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the year-on-year growth of China Telecom's business revenue decreased from 4.5% in the first quarter to 1.6% in the second quarter, with July and August at 1.8%, due to the slowdown in traditional telecommunication and value-added service revenue.
Zhitong Finance and Economics APP learned that UBS Group released research reports stating that according to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the year-on-year growth of China Telecom's business revenue decreased from 4.5% in the first quarter to 1.6% in the second quarter, with July and August at 1.8%, affected by the slowdown in traditional telecommunication and value-added service revenue. The bank believes that telecommunication companies are selectively maintaining industrial digital projects prioritizing profitability over revenue scale. The bank lists China Telecom (00728) as its top choice among telecommunication sector stocks, with a premium target price based on its increasing market share in traditional telecommunication market and a more resilient outlook for enterprise business.
The bank expects the third-quarter revenue growth of China Mobile (00941), China Telecom, and China Unicom (00762) to slow down to 1.2%, 2.7%, and 2% respectively. It believes that the three are moving towards achieving their full-year net profit growth targets, ranging from low to mid-single digits, high single digits, and low double digits growth. The bank predicts that their third-quarter net profits will increase by 4.9%, 6.6%, and 9.4%, assuming a decrease in employee and depreciation costs offset partially by an increase in network costs.
The bank has adjusted its full-year performance forecasts for the three telecommunications companies, believing that they will maintain their dividend guidance. China Mobile's dividend payout ratio is expected to increase from last year's 71% to over 75% within three years, China Telecom's dividend payout ratio is projected to increase from last year's 70% to over 75% within three years, and China Unicom's dividend payout rate is expected to improve from 55% last year to 60% in 2026. The bank's latest target prices for the three telecom companies imply dividend yields of 6.2%, 5.3%, and 6% for China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom, respectively.
The following table shows UBS Group's latest ratings and target prices for telecom-related stocks:
