Many investors pay attention to the 13F filings submitted by Berkshire (BRK.A.US) every quarter, tracking Buffett's stock purchases and sales. The next 13F filing will be released in mid-November, but will only show Berkshire's holdings as of the end of September.

It is worth noting that previous 13F filings revealed that Berkshire's total stock purchases in the first half of 2024 amounted to $4.3 billion, while the total stock sales were $97.1 billion. This means that as of the end of the June quarter, Berkshire's net stock sales reached a record $93 billion. At first glance, the $93 billion warning suggests that Buffett believed there was a lack of buying opportunities in the market at that time, but the S&P 500 index has now far exceeded its prices at the end of June.

Further promotion of this conclusion is supported by the following facts: as of the June quarter, Berkshire's balance sheet had $277 billion in cash and US treasuries. Buffett only repurchased $0.345 billion of Berkshire stock in the June quarter, his smallest buyback in six years.

All these signs indicate that Buffett may think the US stock market is overvalued, but historically, in the 12 months after Berkshire Hathaway's net sell stocks, the s&p 500 index still performed well.

For example, Berkshire's net stock sales totaled $0.7 billion in 2012, while the S&P 500 index had a return rate of close to 30% in 2013; in 2020, Berkshire net sold $8.6 billion in stocks, while the S&P 500 index rose by nearly 27% in 2021.

Berkshire's GAAP net worth (also known as book value) is currently $602 billion. By this standard, it is the most valuable company in the S&P 500 index, and the number of stocks that substantially impact its earnings is very limited. Buffett said in the latest shareholder letter: "In this country, companies that truly drive the development of Berkshire are few and far between, and we and other companies are tirelessly selecting these companies. Some we can value, some we can't. The prices of these companies must be attractive."

Buffett has been aggressively selling bank stocks this year.

During the selling frenzy that began in mid-July, Berkshire Hathaway has reduced its stake in Bank of America (BAC.US) to below 10%.

Those observing Buffett will not know the next move of this 'Oracle of Omaha' for the time being, as the next 13F filing submitted in mid-November will only disclose Berkshire Hathaway's equity holdings as of the end of September. Berkshire Hathaway remains the largest institutional investor in Bank of America.

Before selling Bank of America stocks, Buffett has been selling various long-held bank industry stocks over the past few years, including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo & Co, and U.S. Bancorp (USB.US). Last year, Buffett expressed a pessimistic view on the banking crisis in 2023.

He stated: 'You simply do not know what the stickiness of deposits has become. In this situation, we are very cautious about holding banks.'

Bank failures during the global financial crisis in 2008, as well as the banking crisis in 2023, have undermined people's confidence in the financial system, while inadequate information dissemination by regulatory agencies has made the situation worse. Meanwhile, digitalization and financial technology have made bank operations simpler during crises.

This article is reprinted from 'Wind Stock', edited by China Fortune Capital: Jiang Yuanhua.