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黄金交易提醒:“恐怖数据”恐引爆行情!FXStreet分析师金价交易分析

Gold trading reminder: "Terrifying data" may trigger the market! FXStreet analyst's gold price trading analysis

FX168 ·  Oct 17 12:24

#GoldTechnical Analysis#24K99 News On Thursday (October 17th), in the Asian session, the spot gold price maintained a rebound trend, with the gold price currently trading near $2680 per ounce, and earlier the gold price once approached $2685 per ounce. FXStreet analyst Haresh Menghani wrote on Thursday analyzing the technical trend of gold price.

Menghani wrote that during the Asian session on Thursday, the gold price continued to rise for the third consecutive day and tested historical highs again. The main factors driving funds into gold are the expectations of major central bank rate cuts and the geopolitical risks arising from continued conflicts in the Middle East.

According to informed sources, Israel's response plan to the October 1st attack by Iran is ready, further escalating geopolitical tensions and the risk of a full-scale war in the Middle East.

Menghani added that at the same time, more people believe that the Federal Reserve will continue to moderately cut rates next year, keeping the US dollar near its highest level since early August. This, coupled with a positive risk tone, hinders traders from making new bullish bets on safe-haven gold prices and limits the increase in gold prices. Traders are now focusing on US macroeconomic data, hoping to gain some momentum later in the North American market.

Spot gold closed up $10.99 on Wednesday, up 0.41%, at $2673.59 per ounce. Gold prices surged to $2685.36 per ounce during the session, very close to the historical high of $2685.58 per ounce set on September 26th.

Menghani pointed out that in the early North American session on Thursday, traders will seek clues from US economic data, including retail sales, weekly initial jobless claims, and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index release. In addition, the European Central Bank's monetary policy decision may inject volatility into the market and provide some meaningful impetus for safe-haven gold, allowing traders to seize short-term opportunities.

At 20:30 on Thursday Beijing time, the U.S. Census Bureau will release the retail sales data for September.

Economists expect that the U.S. retail sales rate for September is expected to increase by 0.3%, compared to a 0.1% increase in August.

US retail sales data are commonly known as "Terrible Data" because they usually have a significant impact on financial markets, which may affect the trends of assets such as the US dollar and gold.

Analysts point out that if the U.S. retail sales data is stronger than expected, the dollar is expected to strengthen, potentially impacting the price of gold; on the other hand, a weaker-than-expected retail sales report is expected to stimulate a further increase in the price of gold.

At 20:30 on Thursday Beijing time, the seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims data for October 12th in the United States will be released, expected to be 0.26 million, compared to 0.258 million the previous week.

At 20:30 on Thursday Beijing time, the October Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for the U.S. is expected to rise from 1.7 to 3.0.

Analysis of the latest technical outlook for gold

Menghani stated that from a technical perspective, a sustained positive trend may push the price of gold up to the key level of $2700 per ounce. Some subsequent bids may be seen by call traders as a new catalyst, paving the way for the continuation of the upward trend seen over the past few months.

Menghani pointed out that the oscillation indicator on the daily chart remains in the positive zone, still far from the overbought zone, which strengthens the positive outlook for the gold price.

On the other hand, Menghani added that the level range of 2662-2660 US dollars per ounce now seems to form short-term support, followed by the 2647-2646 US dollars per ounce area. If the gold price falls below the latter, it may trigger some technical selling and drag the gold price to 2630 US dollars per ounceResistance, and then move towards around 2600 US dollars per ounce.

At 12:18 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $2679.59 per ounce.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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