$Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$ Stock prices surged,$USD (USDindex.FX)$Continued gains, significant rebound in Bitcoin, U.S. Treasury bond under pressure for multiple weeks - If you have been consistently following the American financial market recently, you will easily notice a change in the tone of the market logic.

After the fed cut interest rates in September, the main themes of 'recession trade' and 'rate cut trade' in the usa market are continuing to cool down, while another long dormant trend - the 'Trump trade', seems to be waking up again!

And this scene is happening less than three weeks before the usa election on November 5th...

In fact, although the current poll numbers from institutions in the usa show that the competition between usa Republican presidential candidate Trump and usa Democratic presidential candidate Harris is still fierce, but in the more 'real' gambling market directly affecting the interests and losses of the players, the balance of victory is clearly tilting towards Trump's side.

According to the average betting market value provided by RealClearPolitics, the odds of usa Republican presidential nominee Trump winning the presidency this year have climbed to the highest level since the end of July, while also approaching the high point of the Democratic Party changing candidates (with Harris replacing Biden)...

As shown in the chart below, as of Wednesday evening local time, Trump's probability of winning has reached 57.7%, the highest level since July 22nd, far ahead of his Democratic competitor Harris at 41.3%.

It's worth noting that before October 5th, even in terms of gambling odds, Harris was still ahead of Trump.

Many industry insiders attribute the recent reversal of the situation in the election to Harris' poor performance during the interview on CBS's flagship political program "60 Minutes" on October 7. Although Harris responded to the controversial issue regarding the "immigration" policy with a vague political stance during the interview, the answer of "building consensus" evidently did not satisfy Americans, especially Democrats. After the program aired, Harris's poll support rate experienced a cliff-like decline.

Of course, some analysts currently have doubts about the reliability of the latest trends in the gambling market.

Tobin Marcus, head of the American policy and political division at Wolfe Research, stated in a report released on Wednesday, "The gambling market is shifting back towards Trump, but we believe that the change in sentiment has somewhat exceeded the actual changes in the election situation - public opinion poll numbers and poll-based models have remained stable."

Marcus' team tends to rely on polling models rather than the views of gambling bettors.

As of Wednesday, the polling models from FiveThirtyEight and The Economist magazine still show Harris leading slightly in swing states. Although RealClearPolitics' average betting values for 7 key swing states show Trump having a slight edge in 6 states, the averages from FiveThirtyEight and renowned election statistician Nate Silver show Harris leading in 4 of these 7 states.

Jones Trading's General Manager Dave Lutz also expressed caution regarding the signals from the gambling market. He pointed out that on Wednesday morning, the data from the cryptocurrency prediction market Polymarket showed Trump at 60% support and Harris at 40%, but this could be distorted.

"Many people are predicting the election in the gambling market, and Polymarket now believes that Trump has a 20 percentage point lead. However, unfortunately, despite the billions of dollars at stake in the US presidential election, there may still be deviations," Lutz stated in a note.

Looking at recent trends, there have been errors in the predictions of the gambling market for the 2022 midterm elections. Some industry insiders suggest that gambling bettors may also be influenced by unreliable opinion polls, and that gamblers focusing on the political arena tend to be more right-leaning and predominantly male.

However, it is undeniable that the recent series of "Trump trades" in the financial markets have indeed performed generally well.

Among them, the stock price of Trump Media has accumulated a 94.5% increase so far this month, widely considered a "Harris trade". $Invesco Solar ETF (TAN.US)$ and $iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN.US)$ They fell by 13% and 8% respectively this month.

Editor/Rocky