Hot news

• Today at 10 o'clock! A major real estate conference will be held.

At 10 o'clock this morning, the State Council Information Office will hold a significant press conference. Minister Ni Hong of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, together with officials from the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Natural Resources, People's Bank of China, and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission will attend to introduce the relevant situation promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market and answer questions from reporters.

• Chairman of Duquesne Family Office: If Trump returns to the White House, the Fed may become more hawkish.

Stanley Druckenmiller, Chairman and CEO of Duquesne Family Office: If Trump returns to the White House, the Fed may become more hawkish. The rumored Trump team brewing to establish a shadow Fed is a 'scary idea'. I have no firm view on who will win the US election. If Harris is elected President, it is impossible for the Democratic Party to dominate (Capitol Hill). I am unlikely to vote for both Harris or Trump.

• Spot gold tested the historical high set at the end of September during the intraday session. Deutsche Bank: Gold outperformance over financial fair value this year.

On Wednesday (October 16), New York closing bell, spot gold rose by 0.42%, to $2,673.75 per ounce, once rose to $2,685.35 at 21:39 Beijing time, approaching the historical high of $2,685.58 set on September 26. Deutsche Bank mentioned that gold outperformed the financial fair value this year partly due to the Fed's hawkish policy in the first half and the strength of the US dollar, as well as the weakness in the US stock market in the second half. The periodic outbreak of geopolitical risks clearly also favored gold, but when the risks recede, the gold price did not drop equally.

• Goldman Sachs trading division: Predict the S&P 500 index to rise to 6270 points by the end of the year.

The S&P 500 index has already hit a new high 46 times at the close this year, and Goldman Sachs' trading team believes this trend is likely to continue into the last few months of 2024. The global market director and tactical expert Scott Rubner at the bank predicts that this benchmark U.S. stock index could close the year well above 6,000 points. Based on data dating back to 1928, the median historical ROI of the S&P 500 index from October 15 to December 31 is 5.17%. In election years, the median ROI is even slightly higher at around 7%, indicating that the year-end level could reach 6,270 points.

• Bank of America: Fund managers are bullish on the Chinese economy and stocks, while the global stock market is showing a selling signal.

On Wednesday, according to the latest report released by renowned Bank of America strategists Michael Hartnett and others, a global survey conducted by Bank of America in October showed that after the introduction of a package of stimulus measures in China, the net percentage of global fund managers bullish on the future strength of the Chinese economy in the next 12 months reached 48%, the highest since April 2023, reversing the results of the previous month's survey.

Gamestop's surge has dramatically narrowed, with the trading platform considering unplugging the internet of US retail investors.

• All three major indexes closed down, with the Dow hitting another record high at the close.

On Wednesday, the three major U.S. indexes all closed higher, with the Dow rising by 0.79% to another record high at the close; the S&P 500 index rose by 0.47%, and the Nasdaq rose by 0.28%.

Most large-cap tech stocks declined, with Intel and Meta down more than 1%, while Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Netflix, and Apple fell slightly; Nvidia rose more than 3%, and Tesla edged up slightly.

China concept stocks experienced mixed movements, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising by 0.93%. iQIYI surged over 2%, Baidu, Bilibili, and JD.com rose over 1%, while Full Truck Alliance and Alibaba edged up slightly.

• 苹果公司据悉曾与比亚迪秘密合作开发长续航电动汽车电池

According to insiders, $Apple (AAPL.US)$ 公司曾与 $BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$ 合作多年，为其现在已经取消的汽车项目开发长续航电池。知情人士说，苹果和总部深圳的比亚迪在2017年前后联手，打造使用磷酸铁锂电池的电池系统。知情人士称，苹果与比亚迪合作开发的技术本应为苹果计划的车型高度定制。他们说，在这项秘密合作伙伴关系中，苹果工程师带来了先进电池包和热管理方面的专业知识。比亚迪贡献了使用磷酸铁锂电池的制造技术和最新进步。

• 阿斯麦财报会：芯片业需求复苏缓慢，客户更加谨慎

$ASML Holding (ASML.US)$ CEO Christophe Fouquet stated that while AI continues to be seen as a key driver for industry recovery with potential upside, the recovery in other sectors is slower than expected, leading to "more cautious customers and some investment plans being postponed", especially slow demand recovery in the auto, mobile devices, and personal computer markets. He also mentioned that asml holding will slow down short-term investment plans to adapt to market demand.

• Tech giants are betting on nuclear power, and the nuclear power sector has collectively surged.

On October 16, $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ The latest tech giants to bet on nuclear energy, including investing over 0.5 billion USD in developing small modular nuclear reactors$NuScale Power (SMR.US)$ bonds. $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$ On Monday, also signed a power purchase agreement with a USA nuclear energy company, bullish. $NuScale Power (SMR.US)$ "Fast and secure" power supply. Invested by OpenAI CEO Altman. $Oklo Inc (OKLO.US)$ , as well as $NuScale Power (SMR.US)$ 等开发新核电技术的公司周三大涨40%。

• 特朗普概念股大幅上涨，特朗普媒体科技集团涨超15%，本月累涨近95%

On October 17, a Fox News poll showed that former US President Donald Trump leads US Vice President Harris by 50% to 48% nationwide. Soros's former comrade-in-arms, billionaire investor, and Duquesne family office Chairman and CEO Stanley has already priced in the market, predicting that Trump will win the upcoming US presidential election next month. "Over the past 12 days, the market seems very confident that Trump will win. You can see this from bank stocks, from cryptos, and even from $Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$ 中看出。”不过，Druckenmiller说他既不会投票给哈里斯，也不会投票给特朗普。

• 美国铝业公司盘后涨超10%，第三财季调整后息税前利润好于预期

$Alcoa (AA.US)$ 公司第三财季调整后息税前利润0.455 billion美元，分析师预期0.3904 billion美元；第三财季销售额2.9 billion美元，分析师预期2.98 billion美元；第三财季调整后每股收益0.57美元，分析师预期0.25美元；仍然预测全年铝发货量2.5 million至2.6 million公吨；预计全年氧化铝发货量12.9 million至13.1 million公吨。财报发布后，美国铝业公司盘后涨超10%。

• Lucid fell more than 10% after hours, with preliminary data for the third quarter revenue exceeding expectations, announcing the issuance of billions of shares of stocks.

American electric car manufacturer $Lucid Group (LCID.US)$ Preliminary estimates for third-quarter revenue range from $0.199 billion to $0.2 billion, with analysts expecting $0.1964 billion; third-quarter car production of 1,805 units, delivery of 2,781 units (analysts expected 2,334 units); preliminary third-quarter operating loss of $0.765 million to $0.79 million; Lucid will privately place 0.2624 billion shares of stock; Saudi sovereign wealth fund PIF and Ayar (PIF's affiliated company Ayar Third Investment Company) will subscribe for 0.375 billion shares in the private placement, with Ayar's ownership expected to remain around 58.8%. After the announcement, Lucid dropped more than 10% after hours.

• United Airlines announced a $1.5 billion share buyback plan, closing up 12%.

$United Airlines (UAL.US)$ Q3 revenue was $14.843 billion, up 2.5% year-on-year, better than the analysts' general expectation of $14.78 billion. By business segment, passenger revenue was $13.561 billion, up 1.6% year-on-year; cargo revenue was $0.417 billion, up 25.2% year-on-year; other revenue was $0.865 billion, up 7.9% year-on-year. The company also announced a $1.5 billion share buyback plan, with $0.5 billion to be repurchased through the remainder of 2024. By closing, United Airlines closed up 12%.

BeiShui crazily bought China Mobile for nearly HKD 1.8 billion and sold Tencent for about HKD 200 million. On Monday (June 3rd), Southbound funds net purchased HKD 3.4 billion of Hong Kong stocks.

• Beishui grabbed more than 0.5 billion Hong Kong dollars to buy Alibaba, and bought nearly 0.3 billion Hong Kong dollars of CNOOC, selling more than 4.7 billion Hong Kong dollars of Tracker Fund of Hong Kong.

On October 16 (Wednesday), the net Southbound capital sold 1.546 billion Hong Kong dollars of Hong Kong stocks.

$BABA-W (09988.HK)$,$CNOOC (00883.HK)$,$SMIC (00981.HK)$Received net purchases of 0.508 billion Hong Kong dollars, 0.27 billion Hong Kong dollars, 0.16 billion Hong Kong dollars respectively;

$TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG (02800.HK)$,$KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$,$CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$Net sales of 4.722 billion Hong Kong dollars, 0.229 billion Hong Kong dollars, and 0.11 billion Hong Kong dollars respectively.

• China Life Insurance: It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent in the first three quarters will increase by 165% to 185% year-on-year.

$CHINA LIFE (02628.HK)$ The company announced a performance forecast for the first three quarters of 2024, and based on the company's preliminary calculations, it is expected that the net income attributable to the parent company's shareholders in the first three quarters of 2024 under enterprise accounting standards will be approximately RMB 101.135 billion to RMB 108.767 billion. Compared with the same period in 2023, it will increase by approximately RMB 62.971 billion to RMB 70.603 billion, a year-on-year growth of about 165% to 185%.

The company's overall sales volume in 2023 was 18,000 kiloliters, with a year-on-year increase of 28.10%, indicating significant growth. In terms of product structure, the operating income of products worth 10-30 billion yuan were 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.

Keywords: European Central Bank interest rate decision, US retail sales monthly rate, US initial jobless claims, Taiwan Semiconductor/Netflix earnings

On Thursday, in terms of economic data, the US will separately announce the monthly retail sales rate and the initial jobless claims for the week.

In terms of financial events, the European Central Bank will announce the interest rate decision.

In terms of performance, $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ Will announce earnings in pre-market trading on US stocks, while $Netflix (NFLX.US)$ will announce earnings in post-market trading on US stocks.

Futubull Morning News:

A breakthrough after intensive price consolidation is usually a worthwhile trading opportunity. - Andre Costolani
-Andre Costolani

Editor/Rocky