The latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics today show that the multi-index growth rate of real estate dropped in 2019, of which the growth rate of investment in real estate development fell for three months in a row; although the sales volume of commercial housing was close to 16 trillion, reaching a record high, the growth rate dropped; and the area of commercial housing sales turned negative again after only two months of positive growth.

It is worth noting that the area for sale of commercial housing across the country increased in 2019 compared with the end of November, the first month-on-month increase in inventory since March 2017.

Industry insiders believe that this means that the continuous destocking since March 2016 has come to an end and the market supply relationship has been reversed. In terms of the area of new home sales, 2018 is likely to be a historical peak. It is expected that in 2020, the area of new home sales may continue to decline by about 3%, the growth rate of development investment and new home sales may continue to decline, and inventory will increase.

The sales of commercial housing reached a new high, and the growth rate dropped significantly.

According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2019, commercial housing sales totaled 15.9725 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.5 percent over the same period last year, down 0.8 percent from January to November and 5.7 percent from the previous year. This is also the second time that the growth rate of the index has slowed down since it maintained an upward trend in July 2019.

Judging from the sales area of commercial housingIt was 1.71558 billion square meters in 2019, down 0.1% from the same period last year. From January to November, it increased by 0.2%, compared with an increase of 1.3% last year. After maintaining positive growth for two consecutive months, the cumulative growth rate of commercial housing sales area turned negative again.

However, in terms of commercial housing sales in absolute terms, it was close to 16 trillion in 2019, compared with 14.9 trillion in 2018, a new record, but not more than 16 trillion.

Combined with the sales situation of real estate enterprises that have announced their performance.According to the statistics of a Chinese reporter from a brokerage, the total sales of the top 10 housing enterprises (11) in 2019 are about 4.758773 trillion yuan, accounting for 29.8% of the country's commercial housing sales.(note: since Country Garden Holdings only announced the sales of equity, his data is calculated according to the full-caliber sales published by Carey Research Institute. In addition, because China Resources and Longhu have the same sales volume, they are tied for 10th place, so the statistics are 11 real estate enterprises.

Although overall sales hit a record high for the whole year, the growth rate slowed significantly, with commercial housing sales growing by 6.5 per cent in 2019, compared with 12.2 per cent in 2018.

From the top 10 housing companies in sales, in 2019, with the exception of Vanke and green space sales growth rate of less than 6.5%, the other housing enterprises growth rate of more than 6.5%, but compared with their own 2018 growth rate has declined. Among them, the decline is more obvious:

• Green space: from 26.4% in 2018 to 0.1% in 2019

• Metro: from 74.82% in 2018 to 22.48% in 2019

• Shimao: from 74.8% in 2018 to 48% in 2019

• China Resources: from 38.5% in 2018 to 15% in 2019

However, although Shimao has declined a lot, its growth rate is still the highest among the top ten real estate enterprises.

Multi-index growth has slowed down, and inventories have stopped falling and rebounded for the first time in more than two years.

In addition to the decline in the growth rate of commercial housing sales area and sales, the growth rate of investment in real estate development also continues to decline.

Data show that from January to December 2019, national investment in real estate development totaled 13.2194 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.9 percent over the previous year, 0.3 percentage points lower than that in January-November, and 0.4 percentage points faster than the previous year. The growth rate of the index has slowed for three months in a row. Overall, it has maintained a downward trend since May and has fallen back to single digits.

In 2019, the area of new housing starts was 2.27154 billion square meters, an increase of 8.5 percent over the same period last year, down 0.1 percentage points from January to November and 8.7 percentage points from the previous year.

In 2019, the land purchase area of real estate development enterprises was 258.22 million square meters, down 11.4 percent from the same period last year, 2.8 percentage points lower than from January to November, an increase of 14.2 percent last year; the transaction price of land was 1.4709 trillion yuan, down 8.7 percent from the same period last year, a decrease of 4.3 percentage points from January to November and an increase of 18.0 percent last year.

It is worth noting that at the end of 2019, the area of commercial housing for sale was 498.21 million square meters, an increase of 6 million square meters over the end of November and a decrease of 25.93 million square meters over the end of last year.

In response, Yang Hongxu, vice president of the Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, believes that this is the first month-on-month increase in the area of commercial housing for sale since March 2017, which means that the continuous destocking since March 2016 has finally come to an end. the supply relationship in the market has reversed.He predicts that 2018 is likely to be the largest sales area in history, and that the area of new home sales will continue to decline by about 3% in 2020.

Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of KE Holdings Inc. Research Institute, also believes that the relationship between supply and demand has changed, and the market has a significant downward trend. In 2019, development investment fell for eight months in a row, sales area was negative for nine months, and the area of commercial housing for sale increased for the first time in 45 months.

The area of land purchased has declined by more than 10%, which is more than 25% lower than the same period last year. On the one hand, it comes from the tightening of the financing environment, and the bigger reason is that under the trend of declining sales and growing inventory, enterprises lack confidence in taking land. Based on this, we believe that the growth rate of development investment and new home sales may continue to decline and inventories will increase in 2020. "he said.

In addition, from the housing enterprises in place funding indicators, the growth rate has rebounded in 2019.

Data show that in 2019, real estate development enterprises allocated 17.8609 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.6 percent over the previous year, 0.6 percentage points faster than from January to November, and 1.2 percentage points faster than the previous year. Of this total, domestic loans totaled 2.5229 trillion yuan, up 5.1 percent; utilized foreign capital totaled 17.6 billion yuan, up 62.7 percent; self-raised funds totaled 5.8158 trillion yuan, up 4.2 percent; deposits and prepayments totaled 6.1359 trillion yuan, up 10.7 percent; and personal mortgage loans totaled 2.7281 trillion yuan, up 15.1 percent.

Xu Xiaole believes that in 2019, the financing environment of enterprises will continue to tighten, and the growth rate of domestic loans and self-financing is relatively weak.In order to speed up the return of capital, development enterprises speed up pre-sale, price for volume, and speed up overseas financing, the utilization of foreign capital grew by more than 60% last year. On the resident side, under the differentiated credit policy, personal mortgage loans grew by more than 15%, outpacing the growth rate of sales, and personal mortgage loans fell by 0.8% in 2018.

"what is worth paying attention to is that while the market in first-and second-tier cities is declining, household loans are still on the rise, probably mainly in third-and fourth-tier cities in the west, and the potential credit risks are worthy of vigilance. "said Xu Xiaole.

Shen Xin, a researcher at the Yiju Research Institute, said at a news conference that the proportion of real estate in credit resources should be strictly controlled. Considering that it is difficult for the overall sales growth rate to improve greatly at the beginning of 2020, the financial pressure of real estate enterprises will intensify.