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Investors More Bullish on Veritex Holdings (NASDAQ:VBTX) This Week as Stock Advances 7.1%, Despite Earnings Trending Downwards Over Past Year

Simply Wall St ·  Oct 16 21:29

Passive investing in index funds can generate returns that roughly match the overall market. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more than that. For example, the Veritex Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:VBTX) share price is up 41% in the last 1 year, clearly besting the market return of around 32% (not including dividends). If it can keep that out-performance up over the long term, investors will do very well! In contrast, the longer term returns are negative, since the share price is 33% lower than it was three years ago.

Since the stock has added US$97m to its market cap in the past week alone, let's see if underlying performance has been driving long-term returns.

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the last year, Veritex Holdings actually saw its earnings per share drop 44%.

Given the share price gain, we doubt the market is measuring progress with EPS. Indeed, when EPS is declining but the share price is up, it often means the market is considering other factors.

Unfortunately Veritex Holdings' fell 14% over twelve months. So the fundamental metrics don't provide an obvious explanation for the share price gain.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

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NasdaqGM:VBTX Earnings and Revenue Growth October 16th 2024

We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Veritex Holdings

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Veritex Holdings, it has a TSR of 47% for the last 1 year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that Veritex Holdings shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 47% over one year. That's including the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 5%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Veritex Holdings .

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of undervalued small caps that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
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