1. Pre-market trading in the U.S. stock market on October 16 (Wednesday), the futures of the three major U.S. stock indexes all rose. As of the time of publication, Dow futures rose 0.04%, S&P 500 index futures rose 0.13%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.20%.

2. As of the time of publication, the DAX index in Germany fell by 0.41%, the FTSE 100 index in the UK rose by 0.76%, the CAC 40 index in France fell by 0.55%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index fell by 0.76%.

3. As of the time of publication, WTI crude oil fell by 0.64%, to $70.13 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell by 0.65%, to $73.77 per barrel.

Market News

The epic rally of U.S. stocks 'conquers' Wall Street, strategists call out a target of 6100 points. With the U.S. stock market experiencing its strongest rebound in nearly 30 years, Wall Street strategists have raised their forecasts for the U.S. stock market. Strategists from BMO Capital Markets, Goldman Sachs, and UBS have all raised their year-end targets for the S&P 500 index, expecting the index to continue its upward trend. So far this year, the S&P 500 index has accumulated a 22% increase. These actions reflect the unexpected rise of U.S. stocks this year, as the U.S. economy and corporate profits have shown unexpectedly strong performance, with investors continuing to flock to technology stocks expected to benefit from the AI boom. Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs' Chief Equity Strategist David Kostin raised the year-end target for the S&P 500 index to 6000 points. This marks his fourth upward revision since the last few months of 2023. Among forecasters tracked by Bloomberg, his year-end forecast for the S&P 500 index ranks second.

Wall Street sentiment soars! Goldman Sachs strategist exclaims: the S&P 500 index will far exceed 6000 points by the end of the year. Goldman Sachs strategist expert Scott Rubner said on Tuesday that the stock market seems poised for a year-end rebound, potentially pushing the S&P 500 index past the 6000-point milestone. The day before Rubner made the above statement, the S&P 500 index closed at 5859.85 points, marking the 46th closing high of 2024. Rubner had indicated in early October that he was tactically bearish on the U.S. stock market for the next three weeks, but now believes that some adverse factors are diminishing, and the stock fund flow trading environment will show a positive trend. 'The selling pressure in the stock market has abated, and the year-end rebound has begun to resonate, with customers shifting from left-tail hedges to right-tail hedges,' Rubner said. 'Given the "FOMU" (fear of missing out), institutional investors are now forced to enter the market.'

Cantor Fitzgerald is bullish on the e-mini Russell 2000 index, predicting that a Trump victory would benefit small-cap stocks. The American financial services company Cantor Fitzgerald is optimistic about the e-mini Russell 2000 index, believing that the likelihood of Republican presidential candidate Trump winning the November U.S. presidential election is higher than the market expects, which would be beneficial to small-cap stocks. A poll released on Tuesday showed that the competition between Democratic presidential candidate Harris and Trump is becoming increasingly fierce, with both candidates garnering 48% support among voters. Last month's poll showed Harris leading Trump by 5 percentage points, with 49% support to Trump's 44%. Cantor Fitzgerald points out that small-cap stocks typically shine as the general election approaches, and with the warming support for Trump in the polls, the market is eagerly anticipating it.

"Trump trade" is making a comeback! Demand for bullish USD options is surging. Hedge funds are increasing their bets on the USD against the Renminbi, Euro, and Mexican Peso in anticipation of Republican presidential candidate Trump winning next month's U.S. presidential election. Traders note that in the foreign exchange options market exceeding $300 billion USD, bullish USD options are becoming more popular, with their value set to rise if the USD appreciates against other currencies threatened by tariff policies. Standard Chartered Bank's Global Head of FX Options, Saurabh Tandon, stated: "As Trump's odds began to shift in his favor last week, these bets started to increase." With the U.S. election on November 5 approaching, the surge in options trading aligns with some of the world's largest corporations strategizing to hedge against exchange rate risks. In the gambling market, Trump is marginally ahead of Democratic presidential candidate Harris.

Morgan Stanley: USD Strength May Threaten Uptrend in U.S. Stocks. Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Stock Strategist Michael Wilson stated that a stronger USD could pose a threat to the uptrend in U.S. stocks. He mentioned, "A stronger USD could potentially slow down the stock market rebound once again." "This could be something we are currently monitoring that might impact the momentum of record highs in U.S. stocks." U.S. stocks have been hitting all-time highs this year. As investors gear up for the upcoming earnings season, the S&P 500 Index hit its 46th historical closing high of 2024 on Monday. However, the Bloomberg USD Index has risen by around 2% since early October, attributed to unexpectedly high inflation and nonfarm payroll data reducing investors' bets on the speed of future Fed rate cuts.

Sell India, Buy China! Latest BofA Survey: Global Fund Managers Rushing into Chinese Stock Market. A survey by Bank of America Securities revealed that global fund managers have increased their investments in China, the largest economy in Asia, following stimulus measures, at the expense of India. The People's Bank of China announced monetary support measures in September. Bank of America Securities stated in a Tuesday report, "Growth expectations for China have been reinvigorated with the policy shift." "Participants view this differently as they are giving up opportunities elsewhere to focus on China." The Bank of America survey indicates a renewed focus on China, with a decrease in allocations towards the Indian stock market.

Individual stock news

ASML (ASML.US) Earnings Shock Wave Rocks Global Chip Stocks, Market Cap Evaporates Over $420 billion USD. Disappointing guidance from chip giant ASML has led to a meltdown in global chip stocks, with a total market cap loss exceeding $420 billion USD. ASML's warning has dampened the rebound of chip stocks from the summer selloff. Just earlier this week, concerns about production issues with NVIDIA's latest artificial intelligence products had eased, pushing the leading chip manufacturer's stock to new highs. ASML's quarterly earnings were unexpectedly released ahead of schedule on Tuesday. The company's Q3 performance was a shocker, with sales and gross margins meeting expectations but orders falling short of market expectations, prompting a downgrade in next year's sales target. ASML's stock on the European markets experienced the largest drop since 1998. At the time of writing, ASML was down over 3% in pre-market trading.

Morgan Stanley (MS.US) Q3 Earnings Surpass Expectations Across the Board. Morgan Stanley reported Q3 net revenue of $15.38 billion USD, exceeding the estimated $14.35 billion USD. Q3 Wealth Management net revenue was $7.27 billion USD, surpassing the expected $6.88 billion USD. Investment banking revenue was $1.46 billion USD, higher than the estimated $1.37 billion USD. Fixed Income, Currency, and Commodities (FICC) sales and trading revenue amounted to $2 billion USD, exceeding the expected $1.85 billion USD.

Rio Tinto (RIO.US) Q3 Iron Ore Shipments Slightly Below Expectations, Reiterates Full-Year Production Targets. Rio Tinto announced a 1% increase in third-quarter iron ore shipments, slightly below market expectations due to production improvements in its Pilbara operations. Iron ore prices have been under pressure for much of the third quarter, with a bleak demand outlook. For the three months ending September 30, the world's largest iron ore producer shipped 84.5 million tons of iron ore from its Pilbara operations, compared to 83.9 million tons in the same period last year; analysts had expected 84.74 million tons. Following increased production in the September quarter, Rio Tinto reiterated its full-year iron ore production guidance of shipping between 0.323 billion and 0.338 billion tons of iron ore from the Pilbara operations by December 31.

Interactive Brokers (IBKR.US) Q3 Revenue Up 19% YoY, Profits Below Expectations. After the U.S. market closed on Tuesday, Interactive Brokers released its Q3 performance. Data shows that the online brokerage's Q3 revenue increased by 19% to $1.365 billion USD, exceeding the market's expected $1.337 billion USD; earnings per share were $1.75, a 13% increase year-over-year, but lower than the market's expected $1.82. The surge in customer trading volumes led to a 31% growth in commission revenue in the third quarter. Net interest income grew by 8%. Customer accounts saw a sharp 28% increase. DARTs (daily average revenue trades) soared by 42%. However, general and administrative expenses skyrocketed by 67% in the third quarter. The company stated, "One-time costs related to the consolidation of European subsidiaries amounted to $12 million USD, and costs related to legal and regulatory affairs increased by $9 million USD." FactSet data shows analysts project a 21% increase in Interactive Brokers' full-year earnings per share.

Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA.US) received market recognition for its cost reduction and profit increase plan, with its stock price soaring nearly 16%. As American consumers continue to reduce spending under the pressure of high interest rates, Walgreens Boots Alliance, one of the largest chain drugstore operators in the USA, plans to close 14% of its stores in the USA to cut costs and accelerate the improvement of the company's profit fundamentals. In response to this cost-cutting news and relatively optimistic latest financial report data, Walgreens Boots Alliance (referred to as ""Walgreens"") saw a rare significant increase in its stock price. The US chain drugstore operator announced on Tuesday Eastern Time that it plans to close approximately 1200 stores over the next three years, with an estimated 500 stores set to close by 2025. By the US stock market's Tuesday close, the stock, which has been weak since 2022, saw a rare sharp increase, ultimately closing up nearly 16%.

Luxury goods leader LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton (LVMUY.US) reported its worst Q3 performance in four years, with its stock price plunging over 10%! Global luxury goods industry leader LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton Group announced its third-quarter financial performance on Tuesday, facing its worst quarter since the global pandemic began in Q2 2020. The group's overall Q3 sales decreased by 3%, with fashion and leather goods sales dropping for the first time since the pandemic, and organic revenue from key sectors of brands including Louis Vuitton and Dior in the third quarter declined by 5%, contrary to analysts' expectations of a slight increase. Headquartered in Paris, the group's American Depositary Receipts plunged by 10% after the financial report was released, before narrowing the decline to 8%. American competitors such as Ralph Lauren and Estee Lauder, as well as the American Depositary Receipts of the Gucci parent company Kering Group, also saw significant declines.

United Airlines (UAL.US) exceeded expectations with its Q3 revenue and EPS, initiating a $1.5 billion share buyback plan. United Airlines reported Q3 revenue of $14.843 billion, a 2.5% year-on-year growth, surpassing the analysts' general expectation of $14.78 billion. By business segment, passenger revenue was $13.561 billion, a 1.6% year-on-year growth; cargo revenue was $0.417 billion, a 25.2% year-on-year growth; other revenue was $0.865 billion, a 7.9% year-on-year growth. Operating income was $1.565 billion, a 10.0% year-on-year decrease; net income was $0.965 billion, a 15.1% year-on-year decrease; diluted earnings per share were $2.90, compared to $3.42 in the same period last year. Adjusted earnings per share were $3.33, surpassing the analysts' general expectation of $3.07 but lower than the $3.65 from the same period last year. Q3 available seat miles (ASMs) were 81.541 billion miles, a 4.1% year-on-year growth; passenger revenue per available seat mile (PRASM) was 16.63 cents, a 2.4% year-on-year decrease.

Important economic data and events notice

20:30 Beijing Time: US Import Price Index for September MoM (%)

04:30 Beijing Time the next day: US Crude Oil Inventory Change for the week ending October 11th (thousand barrels)

06:00 Beijing Time the next day: US Vice President Harris' interview on Fox News aired.

Performance forecast.

Thursday morning: Alcoa (AA.US)

Thursday pre-market: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US), Nokia (NOK.US), Blackstone (BX.US)